Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Do they care?

I think this conflict has shown people overestimated Russia's military capability and Putin's strategic mind but I think we also overestimated Putin's pragmatism.

We assume Putin is smart enough not to escalate this war into something that could threaten Russia itself but his actions so far have not shown someone who is thinking clearly or strategically. He could quite possibly actually be ill and not of a sound mind. Worse of all, I am not sure he'll distinguish between an existential threat to himself and that of Russia. If this war goes so badly he faces a threat to his position from the even more hawkish element of the Kremlin then he may well feel forced to act on it.

The fact that what criticism is coming out from Russia isn't about the invasion itself but the military failure also suggests that escalation rather than de-escalation is Putin's only option.

I am not arguing that we need to pull back from support for the Ukraine war, we cannot allow a precedent of nuclear threats allowing Russia to invade where they like. We have to press on regardless. I just think we're underpricing the threat here and that we need to remember however illogical an escalation might seem that oftentimes in history people are boxed into their paths by other forces.

We're set on this path because we cannot allow Russia to annex countries and threaten nuclear war to maintain that land. Putin is set on the path because domestic forces don't allow him to withdraw gracefully from this conflict.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

A good summary, Damien.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

NEW: From Kyiv Independent Defence Reporter, Illia Ponomarenko:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't think a lot of people understand that a "small nuclear" attack would use whats feferred as "Low yield tactical nuclear weapons. The smallest being about the equivalent of one of the bombs dropped on Japan.

Meanwhile.

Full translation: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...58010790129665

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well this is a bit of a bummer.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...00132404625409

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russian GRU (special forces) had their ar5ses handed to them by Ukraine at Lyman. Russia claims the loss of the city was down to local volunteers from the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, but this rather well researched piece by the BBC’s Russian service shows otherwise:

https://www-bbc-com.translate.goog/r...en&_x_tr_hl=en

(Original report is in Russian, this link is to the Google translation)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And it just gets wore.

Well worth reading the thread.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...32200824061952

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Historian Timothy Snyder on how the Ukraine war might end, and why a nuclear detonation is still extremely unlikely:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-do...ign=auto_share

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

LATEST Ukraine Update: Thousands of Putin's troops 'call Ukrainian surrender hotline' - as Russian front line 'begins to collapse' - Sky News.

He’s cocked this up good and proper and it’s delicious :beer:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Definitely this. I thought until recently Putin was bad but sane, now I'm beginning to think he's bad and mad. He's beginning to make Lord Raglan (ordered charge of the Light Brigade) look like a master tactician.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think the problem is that people/advisors are terrified of giving him factual accurate information (so he could make informed decisions), which because the facts don’t align with what he thinks should be happening, could lead to their defenestration through a handy casement…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It does seem to happen alarmingly frequently, probably best to live on the ground floor if you fall out with Putin. (Although he does have quite an extensive portfolio of other exotic assassination methods).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's Putin's 70th birthday today.I'm hoping he's going senile and his mates might just throw him a birthday experience

---------- Post added at 12:06 ---------- Previous post was at 12:01 ----------

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/s...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine drops the Kerch Bridge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A significant logistical blow to the Russian army, an absolutely massive personal blow to Putin, who made so much of the bridge’s symbolism when he personally opened it in 2018.

The Road section has completely collapsed, while the rail section has been extensively damaged by fire.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 ----------

A video of the explosion, apparently taken from CCTV: https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status...42KksFWco8VugA

It was absolutely massive.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 ----------

Update, from photos it appears one side of the dual carriageway has collapsed in two places and the other side is damaged but still standing.

A fire on the rail section was fed by burning fuel from a tanker train that was passing at the time. How the Ukrainians timed that is anyone’s guess. The rail line has not collapsed but an intense fuel fire is going to have done some serious damage to the metalwork.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Next an attack towards the Black Sea via Melitopol to cut the land bridge and leave the south isolated without any resupply?