Cable Forum - Post-Brexit Thread

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Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862192)

... and of course the Euro will never fall when the banking crisis inevitably erupts good and proper in Italy for example. Right now the focus is inevitably on the UK, that won't last forever and the Euro will sooner of later reflect the fundamental
problems within the Eurozone. When it does the Euro will fall relative to Sterling and the situation will be reversed. No doubt at that time the threat to the UK will suddenly become the relatively high value of Sterling. :spin:

We're all aware that the UK faces problems but your argument re the relative prosperity of the UK v. EU fails to acknowledge the massive problems facing the EU which aren't going away any time soon and which will have a greater impact on us inside the EU than outside.

I was not comparing the UK to the EU. I was asked for evidence that the country was poorer and I supplied it - we've fallen to the sixth largest economy. As a patriotic Brit I'm saddened by that.
I wasn't answering a question on problems in the Eurozone. Interestingly, it did once look as if the Euro would implode but now it looks as if the worst is behind it. I'm no fan of the Euro project and I've been surprised that it has survived but survive it has and I can't see it imploding. But then if there's anything the last few months have shown, anything can happen! :D

---------- Post added at 17:46 ---------- Previous post was at 17:40 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862196)

Up to now we have opted out of the Schengen area,the Euro ,the Economic and Monetary Union ,we have opt outs from justice and home affairs legislation(130 in total) and the Fundamental Charter of Human Rights .

a la carte membership is really getting up the EU nose

Yes, that's not everything. It does appear as if we've got the best possible deal right now within the EU. That's one of the ironies of the situation.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35862190)

The government talking as if foreign-born doctors can stay 'for now' and companies have to publish the numbers of foreign workers doesn't suggest a country that simply want to control immigration but one which wants to get of them. If qualified doctors who are here already aren't safe then you can't really say this is about low-skilled migration or uncontrolled migration - it's about getting rid of foreigners.

yeah i read your link from the other day and got a very different impression than you .I got that we will train more of our own doctors relying less and less on foreign born doctors.Also making the doctors work for he NHS for at least 4 years as repayment for the free training

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862185)

Reducing and limiting immigration does not mean stopping it .This idea that remainers have that people will be kicked out and immigration set at zero is just more scaremongering imo

Why when I said, quite clearly,

Quote:

Because one of the core tenets of Brexit was to reduce and limit immigration.

do you transpose this into:

Quote:

that people will be kicked out and immigration set at zero

You need to come to accept that the debate on Brexit is still ongoing: what it means in terms of implementation and how/when it plays out.

Just because you "won" the binary referendum vote does not mean that the complexity of our relationship with the EU is resolved.

Let me make this point: for the decades when this country was part of the Common Market/EU, did you accept this as a fait accompli and shut up? You do not need to answer that :)

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862192)

We're all aware that the UK faces problems but your argument re the relative prosperity of the UK v. EU fails to acknowledge the massive problems facing the EU which aren't going away any time soon and which will have a greater impact on us inside the EU than outside.

in 5 yrs time we could very easily be back to number 4 when the eurozone collapses which is being predicted by just about every financial institution on the planet

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35862197)

You were saying that the UK will be worse off as a result of Brexit and the resulting fall in the value of Sterling:

Quote:

Remember, leaving the EU means a poorer country with less money to spend on our armed forces, schools and hospitals.

... and I'm saying that staying in the EU would not really have changed that in the longer term for a number of reasons. If you look back our position in the league table of largest economies has changed before due to currency fluctuations - it goes both ways and has pros and cons.

The worst is certainly not behind the Euro, there's plenty more to come but I guess we'll have to differ on that. Time will tell one way or the other but I think we can agree we're in uncharted territory and that's why Sterling is suffering - uncertainty.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862204)

You were saying that the UK will be worse off as a result of Brexit and the resulting fall in the value of Sterling:

Yes, worse off than it was before, not benchmarking it to the EU.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35862204)

.. but I think we can agree we're in uncharted territory and that's why Sterling is suffering - uncertainty.

Agreed we're in uncharted territory. Trying to agree with you but it's not just uncertainty that has knocked the pound down - the markets have judged that the UK will be weaker outside the EU and have priced in a reduction to the £ accordingly.

---------- Post added at 18:02 ---------- Previous post was at 18:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862203)

in 5 yrs time we could very easily be back to number 4 when the eurozone collapses which is being predicted by just about every financial institution on the planet

Any links?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

I'm pretty sure we flip flop fairly regularly with France on the 5th - 6th richest actually, this is nothing new.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35862169)

Do you think people in similar positions to your parents would still be allowed to come here in the coming years?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35862201)

Why when I said, quite clearly,

do you transpose this into:

You need to come to accept that the debate on Brexit is still ongoing: what it means in terms of implementation and how/when it plays out.

Just because you "won" the binary referendum vote does not mean that the complexity of our relationship with the EU is resolved.

Let me make this point: for the decades when this country was part of the Common Market/EU, did you accept this as a fait accompli and shut up? You do not need to answer that :)

because you posted the highlighted section ,it just seems that some sections of the remain camp have gone to extremes re immigration .There will be no forced repatriation (with the exception of criminals i hope) and i would say that in reality after Brexit immigration will stay largely unchanged for the first few years until policies take effect

---------- Post added at 18:06 ---------- Previous post was at 18:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35862197)

Yes, that's not everything. It does appear as if we've got the best possible deal right now within the EU. That's one of the ironies of the situation.

Can't you see though that piecemeal membership simply does not work it never has since we joined the EEC ,we have always been at odds with the fundamental ideals of the EU hence the numerous opt outs

---------- Post added at 18:26 ---------- Previous post was at 18:06 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35862206)

Any links?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/joseph...he-euro-2016-8

https://www.ft.com/content/5726e610-...d-0dfe89910bd6

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...oseph-Stiglitz

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016...-warns-moodys/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...s-french-bank/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...oros-investors

There's pages and pages of predictions of the collapse of the EU and the euro

---------- Post added at 18:30 ---------- Previous post was at 18:26 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35862189)

On Monday we became the sixth largest economy falling behind France; on Sunday we were the fifth largest and ahead of France. So we're poorer already. Anyone taking a trip abroad will notice this.
The increase in costs of imported goods will start to impact our spending power next year when the existing currency hedges run out. The more that May talks about a hard Brexit, the poorer the country becomes as the Pound falls. We've already seen hefty prices rises from the likes of Apple and Hotpoint and more are on their way.

I'm not sure how reliable the IMF is but you seem to approve of their predictions so i'll leave this for you

Quote:

The International Monetary Fund has predicted the UK will be the fastest growing of the G7 leading industrial countries this year and accepted that its prediction of a post-Brexit-vote financial crash has proved to be overly pessimistic.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...nd-brexit-vote

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35862170)

Why ever not? They came here, worked hard and brought up a family that includes a successful and articulate son. Immigration won't be stopped; people who do want to come here will benefit from British way of life and Government.

They were dispossessed refugees from a war, the same as my grandmother was and some of those legitimate people in calais, are they coming here like our ancestors did?

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862209)

Quote:

because you posted the highlighted section ,it just seems ...

I think you are putting words in people mouths here. Can you stick to what people actually said?

My point is that Brexit, as understood by a large number of peoiple who voted for it, *mandates* controlled immigration:

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2016/10/22.jpg

This policy would preclude the ability for European (and other) migrants to come here without some employment prerequisite.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35862208)

I'm pretty sure we flip flop fairly regularly with France on the 5th - 6th richest actually, this is nothing new.

We don't - this is something entirely new unfortunately.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

It's been new in the past few months IIRC. Back and forth because of sterling I think.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862209)

Pre the EEC we struggled with inefficiency, strikes and high unemployment. We've now got record low unemployment and culturally and sportswise we're doing well and punching above our weight.
But I get why it doesn't feel that everyone has enjoyed the country's success. The austerity measures have meant cutbacks left right and centre whilst at the same time our schools have been filling up with children from eastern Europe whose parents are eager to be part of an open, tolerant and successful country. And those in some professions have felt the pressure from Latvian lorry drivers and Slovakian secretaries. So, whilst the UK has been performing well in many ways, I appreciate that you may not feel that everyone has shared in its success.

---------- Post added at 21:18 ---------- Previous post was at 21:16 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862209)

I'm not sure how reliable the IMF is but you seem to approve of their predictions so i'll leave this for you

I've never expressed an opinion on the IMF's predictions.

---------- Post added at 21:21 ---------- Previous post was at 21:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35862239)

It's been new in the past few months IIRC. Back and forth because of sterling I think.

It's a 30-year low against the dollar that has caused the UK to fall to sixth place. We've been consistently ahead of France until now.

---------- Post added at 21:23 ---------- Previous post was at 21:21 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35862209)

I appreciate your time in compiling these links. Thank you, I will take a look.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35862195)

So do you think, with the Brexit mandate to "control" immigration, migrants from Latvia would be allowed to live here if they so desired?

Possibly. Ask not what our country can do for them - ask what they can do for our country (apologies to JFK).

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35862218)

They were dispossessed refugees from a war, the same as my grandmother was and some of those legitimate people in calais, are they coming here like our ancestors did?

Not necessarily. Europe is a safe enough sanctuary.

Re: Post-Brexit Thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35862265)

Not necessarily. Europe is a safe enough sanctuary.

So was Europe after the war, didn't stop our relatives coming here