Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That I can accept as it is not a positive spin it is quite the opposite and much less likely to be propaganda

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And another, this time regarding Izyum.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/st...52164195737601

I think we can safetly say the Ukrainians are making huge advances ATM.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Reports coming in that the Russians have withdrawn from Izyum.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Apologies.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This is fast turning into a rout of Russian forces. Yet frustratingly the BBC is still illustrating its reports using a map date-stamped 29 August, and unbelievably they’re still decorating their maps with red arrows marked “direction of Russian advance” even though there have been no significant advances in those areas for months.

Right from the outset the BBC has been in thrall to the idea of the unstoppable Russian army (remember how breathlessly they kept updating us on how long the convoy heading for Kyiv was, without ever once seriously asking why that convoy wasn’t going anywhere) and despite the fact that there have been verifiable reports coming from all across the southeast today they still can’t bring themselves to admit they might have been reading this wrong.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

The Ukrainian Twitter pundits seem to be getting very excited. Are Russia in complete collapse?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well it doesnt seem like they are doing particularly well atm.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Ukraine has been egging Russia on about an offensive in Kherson for weeks. This appears to have been because they believed they could more easily interdict Russian logistics there. So, draw them into a pocket west of the Dnipro river, cut off their supply lines at the rear, then grind them down. This is what they’ve been about for the past week or two. Russia has had no choice but to throw everything at it because Kherson controls the approach to Crimea (as well as Crimea’s water supply). Ukraine clearly has the will and is daily acquiring the means to go after Crimea, and arguably must do so because Russia’s presence there will always leave Ukraine vulnerable to another attempted invasion.

-but-

While shaping the battlefield around Kherson, the Ukrainians appear to have been outrageously successful at emptying out the occupied far east. So when they started attempting to push back a little around the area south of Kharkiv, they began to break through, and then to push forwards, with increasing speed. By several accounts their spearhead has pushed 70km into territory occupied since the start of the war. There are verifiable photos from the outskirts of Severodonetsk. That puts the whole Donbas in play, yet there’s seemingly little Russia can do to bolster defences there now, because Putin’s strategic interests demand that Crimea be held, and it’s the loss of Kherson that would threaten that.

If you want to know what’s really going on down there and how it’s likely to play out, then get on the Twatter and follow:

Mick Ryan (retired Aussie general) https://twitter.com/warinthefuture?s...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Phillips O’Brien (St Andrews based academic) https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien?...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Mike Martin (academic, author) https://twitter.com/threshedthought?...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg
Air Marshall Edward Stringer RAF (retired) https://twitter.com/edwardstrngr?s=2...pVrQjB4oX0AIjg

There are others, but these have been consistently willing to challenge the groupthink and have been quick to document credible information about the developing situation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I always wondered why Ukraine kept publising they were going on the offensive in Kherson, it now seems apparent. It was always to pave the way for the Kharkiv offensive which would cut off a major logistics hub for both east and south Ukraine. Adding to the destrction of the bridges suppling Kherson from the south this now could lead to the encirclement of Russian forces north of the river.

The Kharkiv operation has almost certainly led to a rout of Russian forces although Russian MOD have said they've been withdrawn to bolster the Donetsk.

I wonder if a rout in Kherson will now follow?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I had to smile the other day when reading a story about North Korea supplying Russia with weapons.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Kherson is less likely to witness an outright collapse because the Ukrainian strategy has been to draw in a lot of Russian personnel and equipment, then win a steady war of attrition for the city.

Ukraine has also destroyed or seriously damaged all the river crossings south and east of Kherson so if the Russians are making a run for it they are doing so on foot and leaving everything they can’t physically carry.

A rout here would be an abject disaster in its own right, not to mention bringing the future of Crimea into play. Russia won’t budge easily.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Depends how long they can last out. Practicall all logistic supply lines have been cut, ammo dumps have been destroyed (I doubt all). The Ukrainians could just encircle them and wait them out, or Ukraine could consolidate their gains in Kharkiv, set up defensive lines in the north and east and head south to Kherson.

Crimea will happen next year, I can't see anything happening in that direction this year.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Maybe they'll stop short of Crimea to try and give Putin an out? He can't lose Crimea and stay in office surely so the threat of it might convince him to try and find a way out of the war.

I also wonder if he'll go full mobilisation and the consequences of that domestically and for the war. Hopefully, Ukraine very quickly put up defences to be ready for any counterattack.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That ship has well and truly sailed. Any cease fire that leaves Putin with any Ukrainian territory can be spun into a victory in Russia and leaves Russian armour on Ukrainian soil, from which it can launch another offensive next year, or in 10 years.

Sure there may come a point when Russia becomes interested in a negotiated settlement but what possible reason could Ukraine now have for negotiating away even an inch of its sovereign territory? Crimea is Ukraine and Russia must now get out, including from the bases it maintained there post-USSR.