Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35722443)

Freudian slip I reckon... ;)

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35722445)

Caught out...

I just wanted another passport.... :D

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35358486)

Scotland will not vote to split from England. Poll after poll after poll has shown that the settled will of the Scottish people is to remain in political union. Alex Salmond has a very good reason for delaying his referendum until 2014 - delaying it as long as possible is the only means he has of delivering the SNP's long-term pledge of a referendum whilst desperately hoping that something, anything, will transpire to turn public opinion around. He will also hope to complete a full five-year term in office having not spent four years of it being accused of having no legitimacy, the likely consequence of a referendum having been held and lost some time last year. Furthermore he will want to carve out a reputation for the SNP as a viable, alternative centre-left Government for Scotland so, having lost a referendum on independence in 2014 he can still go to the country in 2015 and ask for a third term as First Minister.

The electoral rules that return MSPs to Holyrood were designed to prevent the SNP from ever getting an outright majority. To an extent this suited Salmond perfectly as he is a pragmatist and a gradualist when it comes to achieving a split from the Union. He knows that the time is not now, and being able to blame a Parliament he did not control for denying him a referendum bill was very convenient. Only in the last stages of the 2010 election campaign, when an outright win for the SNP began to look possible, did the SNP start rolling back it's referendum commitment as far as it possibly could (that being a delay, not a cancellation).

It is not properly appreciated south of the Border that the SNP won the election despite their separatist agenda, not because of it. They are the only effective opposition to Labour in Scotland and the overwhelming desire on the part of Scottish voters in 2010 was to get Labour out of power in Holyrood.

---------- Post added at 13:57 ---------- Previous post was at 13:53 ----------

Useful analysis in this morning's Torygraph by Labour's Douglas Alexander:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...sh-people.html

Originally Posted by bubblegun (Post 35722449)

I know this is an old post, but a Yes for Independence is NOT a vote for the SNP. I wouldn't imagine they would win in an independent Scotland . An "old-Labour" type party would be in government given the historic voting results.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35722405)

The Undecideds are starting to decide and the polls, which have always had trouble working out how to weight for these, are all over the place.

As Derek pointed out, of the remaining undecideds, they are 2:1 in favour of No, which is what you would expect, No being Status Quo, which typically picks up in the last days of a constitutional campaign. The "excluding don't knows" headline figure effectively attributes the undecided votes 50:50 to each side, so in this case that 55:45 result is very flattering to Yes.

I still think we are heading for a No victory by 60:40 or better.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35722441)

Ooops!

fixed now - thanks.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35722662)

YouGov has Yes up 4 points as well.

Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35722672)

What poll is that?

Originally Posted by Derek (Post 35722679)

Hmmm, still a large enough lead but the biggest enemy is complacency. A few narrow polls might just be best to ensure every NO voter gets out and doesn't assume the yes camp has folded.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35722774)

Scaremonger, it's in the bag, my advice to every no voter is don't bother, put your feet up, have a cup of tea or a wee dram and wait for the results to come in

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35722501)

Still better not get complacent. It's not over until the fat man concedes.