Cable Forum - Eurozone will collapse...

Taking into account Greece’s growing financial needs, its debt situation is “unsustainable,” according to the latest IMF projections contained in a confidential report obtained by Reuters. The new data, sent by the IMF to EU governments late on Monday after a new Greek bailout plan was agreed upon in principle, states that the 86-billion-euro program will not save Greece from financial collapse.

The updated debt sustainability analysis, which is said to have been released by the fund now that several media outlets have leaked the data, calls for a considerable portion of the Greek debt to be written off.

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The Germans won't stand for that. Looks like the can didn't get far down the road.

Osem	15-07-2015 10:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Easy, just get Goldman Sachs in to come up with some new numbers which look better. Problem solved... :rolleyes:

heero_yuy

15-07-2015 10:53

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35788498)

Easy, just get Goldman Sachs in to come up with some new numbers which look better. Problem solved... :rolleyes:

If it were just the Eurozone and ECB then I suspect they'd try a coverup but now the IMF have blown the gaffe: They'll just be throwing good money after bad.

BTW remember a while ago I suggested that they'd dip into another EU fund somewhere to prop up the Greeks?

Quote:

Europe is split over whether Greece could be offered an emergency loan from a central EU fund in a move that could require around £850m of financial support from the UK.

George Osborne, the chancellor, is furiously opposing the idea, saying it is a “non-starter”, but the European commission confirmed it was under consideration in spite of British objections and German scepticism about the plan.

Osborne is arguing only eurozone countries should participate in the Greek bailout, so it would be wrong to tap the central EU fund set up in 2010 to help Ireland and Portugal, which is known as the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM).

Using this source of cash as an emergency bridging loan until a longer-term bailout plan is put in place would leave the UK out of pocket if Greece failed to repay it.

Linky

I just knew that sooner of later we'd be in line to prop up the Euro vanity project.:rolleyes:

I reckon Grexit is back on the menu.

Osem	15-07-2015 11:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

I reckon UKexit is on the cards.

No doubt they'll argue that the IMF has previous when it comes to erroneous forecasts.

nomadking

15-07-2015 11:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35788498)

Easy, just get Goldman Sachs in to come up with some new numbers which look better. Problem solved... :rolleyes:

Minor little detail, but Goldman Sachs had absolutely nothing to do with any figures, fake or not. That was solely down to the Greeks. All Goldman Sachs did was carry out Greek instructions for transactions of a particular type. The accounting rules said those type of transactions didn't have to be on the books, but the Greeks could have chosen to put them there. The Greeks also hid government debt by getting publicly-owned companies to run up a debt on the government's behalf.

Other EU countries have used those tricks, eg Italy and Austria.

Osem	15-07-2015 11:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Minor little detail but my comment was a tad tongue in cheek you know. Clearly nobody's going to ask GS to come up with new figures are they. The extent to which GS was or wasn't responsible for anything dubious will only be determined if there is a legal action and as I said, I doubt there will be one.

nomadking

15-07-2015 12:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35788505)

Minor little detail but my comment was a tad tongue in cheek you know. Clearly nobody's going to ask GS to come up with new figures are they.

How about not perpetuating the myths and lies. Too many people keep buying into them without checking the facts for themselves.

Osem	15-07-2015 12:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Perpetuating myths and lies? :rofl:

You seem to be labouring under the impression that CF is some form of major media institution like the Beeb. I posted a link to the article in the Independent about alleged wrongdoing. You disagree with it. So what? If you're so worried about 'myths and lies' I suggest you take it up with them and the source of their article.

Here's a link to an article in a German publication back in 2010 on the same subject. You might want to challenge them too while you're at it.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-676634.html

Following your example we'd never be able to comment on or joke about anything controversial which hasn't already been the subject of definitive legal action. Great... :rolleyes:

Osem	16-07-2015 09:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

German muscle threatens European solidarity

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33535257

This is what I've felt all along. The Germans, who've done very nicely out of Europe thank you, are increasingly going to be seen as oppressors. It's quite evident that they're calling the shots and as such, they'll be the ones who cop the inevitable flak. Union? What union?

Kursk

16-07-2015 12:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35788776)

Looks as if the reasons to exit the EU are on the increase - not least to ensure that the UK is not complicit in the new wave of German (fiscal) expansionism. That said, I can see benefit in an Anglo-German Alliance with economies that would complement each other and with like-minded peoples to boot. It would also be a coming home for the Saxe-Coburgs.

Unity through equality.

nomadking

16-07-2015 12:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35788817)

It was the Greeks with the fiscal expansion, with all their borrowing and spending, of which at least half won't be paid back, ie they stole it.

Kursk

16-07-2015 12:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35788831)

It was the Greeks with the fiscal expansion, with all their borrowing and spending, of which at least half won't be paid back, ie they stole it.

Whether they 'stole' it or whether others had ulterior motives for over-lending or whether the problems ought to have been foreseen or whatever....is not really of concern to me.

Getting out of the whole sorry mess asap is.

Carlos Carboni

16-07-2015 15:06

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

ECB will back the Greek banks with extra .9 billion Euros --- just announced

Osem	20-07-2015 15:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Greek banks face full nationalisation

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33595861

Quote:

So what has gone wrong? Have the Greek banks been taking mad credit risks? Have they been lending recklessly as though there were no tomorrow - in the way that sank the banks of most rich developed countries in 2008?

If only. Credit has been almost impossible for businesses and individuals to obtain for months.

The banks have been sunk by the collision of Greek democracy and dysfunctional eurozone governance.

Another ringing endorsement...

nomadking

20-07-2015 16:06

Re: Eurozone will collapse...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35789617)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33595861

Another ringing endorsement...

The Greeks were fiddling the books on a widespread scale.
From 2010.

Quote:

When Papaconstantinou arrived here, last October, the Greek government had estimated its 2009 budget deficit at 3.7 percent. Two weeks later that number was revised upward to 12.5 percent and actually turned out to be nearly 14 percent. He was the man whose job it had been to figure out and explain to the world why. “The second day on the job I had to call a meeting to look at the budget,” he says. “I gathered everyone from the general accounting office, and we started this, like, discovery process.” Each day they discovered some incredible omission. A pension debt of a billion dollars every year somehow remained off the government’s books, where everyone pretended it did not exist, even though the government paid it; the hole in the pension plan for the self-employed was not the 300 million they had assumed but 1.1 billion euros; and so on.

Didn't help that they had a law requiring Greek pension funds to have 77% of their money in Greek bonds. Must have seemed a good idea at the time and probably was.

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