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TLDR: We'll have to wait and see. |
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Also there is a very valid question around people in hospital “with” covid v in hospital “because” of covid. |
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From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59822687
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The virus doesn’t choose what to mutate to do whatever (that article does fall in to that trap a little) Mutations occur spontaneously and then are tested in ‘the wild’. In my old field of HIV, the mutation rate is very high and so is the reproduction rate (new virus made per day) even with asymptomatic patients. This meant that drug resistance pops up very quickly. Luckily, SARS-COV2 has a relatively low mutation rate. In other news, have we seen the anti-vaccine lads destroying a COVID testing centre in Milton Keynes - https://twitter.com/culladgh/status/1476212244723732486 We demand to be free!!! Am I allowed to get a COVID test? No!!! |
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The deaths plummeting is a red herring due to the many times mentioned lag |
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There’s no evidence of Covid killing anyone in significant numbers in the UK according to some on here so that, by definition, is a red herring.
It’d take far longer than a few weeks for Omicron to be anything more than a blip on the body count. Now that it’s both dominant and rising in all areas of the UK the likelihood of hospitalisations (and deaths) being from Omicron substantially rises. But with registry offices closed (and ironically, staff isolating!) I doubt there’s much to gleam from last weeks figures. What will skew the figures though is that Omicron is infecting people that Delta wouldn’t have - due to lower (and waning) vaccine efficacy against infection. |
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Even the Flu/Pneumonia came in at 6th, killing almost 19,000. The population of England was about 56.5 million in mid 2020, making covid deaths about 0.12%. Quote:
There are no final figures for 2021, but given the total covid deaths is about 172,000, that makes 103,000 in 2021. That matches quite well with 2020, since the 69,000 were mostly from mid March 2020 onwards, i.e. about 9.5 months. The majority of 2021 deaths were also in the first 3 months. |
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The only reason its losing credibility is because it doesn’t fit your narrative. Comparing South Africas wave to ours is like comparing apples to oranges Due to demographics, of course you already knew that. Let’s see where deaths are in 3-4 weeks, if they haven’t significantly increased I’ll apologise |
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Are deaths usually 7-8 weeks behind the infection curve? I don’t know, but it looks like we’ll find out by the end of Jan. |
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Watch out in the absence of a definition they’ve got the easy win if deaths don’t rise in proportion with infections. As you could reasonably expect “if nothing changes”. A delta week to week comparison, or month to month comparison, before the booster campaign was fairly easy. There’s two reasons this won’t happen - the collapse in vaccine efficacy against infection isn’t replicated effectiveness against hospitalisations. More people who wouldn’t have caught Delta in the first place will get Omicron but there’s still protection against hospitalisation and death by comparison to an unvaccinated population. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270 The second reason being the low hanging fruit of previous waves have already expired. What the new cases/hospitalisations/deaths ratio lands at isn’t yet clear. School closures will have reduced the R number, plus delays in reporting data, lack of availability of testing, etc make this a rocky period for like for like comparisons to be made. |
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What we can say is, for the last full week we have figures for, that daily hospitalisations have increased by 30%…
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1640821072 |
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Patients on venilation beds is pretty steady and has been for a while. In fact it's dropping slightly.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1640823643 |
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So the NHS is now weaponised....
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It’s all a conspiracy, OB. People are just admitting themselves to hospital because they are bored. |
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It’s basic risk management to put in place contingency for a potential increase in demand, not "weaponising the NHS*". *did you get that phrase from the Telegraph or the Spectator? |
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Only 52% of NHS staff in 2020 were professionally qualified clinical staff. https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-info...tics/july-2020 The bureaucratic cost thus consumes a very high percentage of the budget that could have been used years ago to recruit and train additional medical staff. "Saving the NHS" is saving the bureaucracy as much as anything else. Once again, poor government has put us into this situation. This started in Blair's days when his lot became obsessed with internal markets and all the administrative bagged brought in with that. |
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Let's hope Boris and the 'right' will own the decision to ignore the scientific advice and let the country party on.
Or will he try to blame anyone else? The NHS are to blame for a start, obviously... :rolleyes: |
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Though it's clearly an issue internally, I'm not totally convinced that NHS staffing levels due to sickness absence etc (or maybe just unable to fill vacancies) should ever be used to decide whether to lock the country down. Even though patients need to be treated it would be like closing the country down because Tesco couldn't get anyone to deliver stuff to their shops.
Even looking at the numbers of people going to hospital is a bit misleading now in terms of severity of illness, given that in relation to those having more lengthy stays (which is an issue) those having covid but going in for other things (which is an isolation issue, but not primarily them needing covid care) or needing minimal, short treatment seem to be much more commonplace. I think the stats are still showing those in critical care or on ventilators are not increasing or are actually going down which is more of an indicator of the severity in the hospitals than the numbers of those going into hospital with a positive test for covid. |
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Now know 3 people with COVID , none of whom thought they had it. All were sure it was flu , think it's a case that if you look hard enough you'll find it. In years gone by it was have not been recorded
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If Tesco didn’t get stuff to their shops I’d go to Asda. Or make do with what’s in the cupboard. If I were laid out on a surgery table after a car crash I can’t get up and get treatment elsewhere. Or make do with the fact I could treat myself. If there’s a good reason to not have restrictions, it definitely isn’t underinvestment in the NHS after a decade of austerity. |
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Prof. Qual. Clinical staff - 610k Support to clinical staff - 373k (these are the Healthcare Support workers, not Admin staff) That’s a total of 983k directly involved in patient care - that’s 85%. https://files.digital.nhs.uk/6F/9587...anisation.xlsx |
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The Gov has to take a lot of blame for this. To this day, gov.uk says "The main symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) are:
That's at least 18 months out of date |
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My kids have been enjoying this years Royal Institution Christmas Lectures. The series title is ‘Going viral: How Covid changed science forever’ hosted by Jonathan Van Tam. The first two episodes exploring virus, the immune system, testing and epidemiology are up on iPlayer now with the final episode on tonight which is about vaccines and variants on BBC 4.
Well worth a view for secondary school level kids, especially those doing triple science GCSE who study this kind of thing at school in biology. Always loved these when I was younger and it’s certainly nice to see a very relevant series this year. |
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The Doctors and Nurses do not exist to hire in the first place. It is NOT just a problem for the UK.:rolleyes: There are all sorts of support roles required, eg cleaners, porters, health assistants, cooking staff, maintenance. Try doing without them. |
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His statement was "Only 52% of NHS staff in 2020 were professionally qualified clinical staff." Your figure quotes "Prof. Qual. Clinical staff - 610k", which is 52%, so how is it incorrect ? |
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https://www.nationalhealthexecutive....administration
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It’s fundamentally a right wing trope used to justify not increasing NHS spending. Even if NHS administration costs were reduced to zero, nobody who says it would support then raising taxes to employ more nurses. |
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It about time we got tough.
Ban anyone who refuses the vaccine or a mask from entering any business (unless they have a doctor certify this). The covid passport should be introduced, and those that don't show a valid QR code refused entry. There is no discrimination as you have the option to get the vaccine, you discriminate yourself by refusing. |
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2) Why wasn't that done pre-2010?:rolleyes: 3) If it was that simple, how come nowhere else(other than iirc Italy) in the 1st world has tried it? Not enough people want to train in the first place. Quote:
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We're actually pretty good at getting the vaccine in this country and haven't seen nearly the level of resistance some places in Europe (or America) has to either vaccines or masks. I think there are many reasons for that such as the trust people have in the NHS and broadcast news being sane but I think another big reason is the public has a pretty good relationship with the state. The Government makes an argument we should do something, we accept that argument and do it and in return we expect the Government to cut us a little slack as well. A mutual understanding that we'll listen to authority and therefore authority will respect our liberty. It works well. Compare that to France where people will openly reject the state, thumbing their nose at it however reasonable their request, and so the state responds with force. They don't get the vaccine, so they introduce vaccine passports and everyone has to get it. They had to actively enforce the lockdown with literal paper passes to go out and the police checking their papers. |
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So given that to have an option, there needs to be an option, what’s the option?. |
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Well centuries of licking boot appears to have served serfdom in the Kingdom well for the “papers please” society you warned us of.
The keyboard revolution hasn’t come to fruition. Unless Piers Corbyn is it. That said with vaccine efficacy (against infection, of course) so close to zero it’s hard to make a compelling case vaccine passports do anything to reduce transmission. The one use would be - in a strategy of promoting mass infection (and if the Government can do it to kids, they can definitely do it to you) is to herd the sheep least likely to land in intensive care into superspreading events to increase their hypothetical immunity against future variants. If you squint at it carefully enough, you could call it “just shield the vulnerable”. |
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It's like masks all over again, ok so yes even a paper or cloth mask probably has an effect, but not a very good one - and yes, surgical masks like N95s or FFP2s do have more effectiveness, but again people forget why this is a mitigation (i'm sure you personally don't) - it's to protect others from you and not the other way round. A recent negative PCR or (done properly) LFT is more sensible as this shows someone doesn't have the virus in which case the mask is doing absolutely diddly in terms of stopping the virus, because there is no virus from that person to stop. Like all the constant testing (which I do concede is the most useful thing at the moment) it's basically making everyone feel like they must have the virus even if they don't have the virus and/or aren't ill, which is a mentality I don't really like (though absolutely if you're showing signs of infection you probably need to get a test). Both of them are visual signs of actually looking like you're doing something instead of actual measures which stand much chance of stopping the virus. The good news is, that actually, failing to stop the virus (which still has Canute-esque attributes fundamentally) is starting to become a bit less of a big deal. Most of the cases I bet which are being picked up now are because people with no symptoms, or symptoms which would ordinarily be dismissed as a cold in other years, and aren't progressing further, are showing this, as well as people wanting to test to ensure they don't have the virus before visiting people over Christmas or NY, as opposed to people who are clearly struggling due to being ill with a serious virus. Whether this is because the vaccines are preventing the serious illness or because Omicron itself is a milder illness is another question, but it's nothing like this time last year where loads of seriously ill people were queueing in ambulances outside hospitals. Plus the data's a bit patchy with various backlogs at this time. If SA is anything to go by it will peak (probably around now if truth be told) then decline almost as quickly as it went up. But we shall see, because no-one can tell the future. |
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I think for the best example of the difference you should look at the population's general relationship with the police and that of other countries. Much less hostile on both sides and it's better for everyone. |
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I suppose the police here are alright unless you are an ethnic minority, a striking coal miner, speak with an Irish accent while carrying a table leg or protest against an illegal hunt but I digress... |
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Not many striking coal miners around…
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Ah yes, those striking miners, like the ones that threw a concrete block off a bridge, killing a taxi driver ....
Not really anything to do with Coronavirus, so lets get back on topic eh. |
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An additional problem with the passport plan is how long does passport last and thus is there a chance of becoming "infectious" between obtaining passport and attending "event"? If based on LFT's how do you police them, how do you prove that someone tells the truth about their result or simply omits test if positive could have financial impact? Do you want to force PCR's tests to go to the cinema/theatre/pub?
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It’s being alleged on social media that Wales First Minister, Mark Drakeford, has been spotted across the Wales Border, & checking in to a Hilton Hotel in Bristol. Shameful if true.
This is the same idiot who’s locked down hospitality & Night clubs in Wales for the new year which has been considered totally unnecessary, as NHS chiefs here, say no new curbs are required. |
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Im not sure NHS chiefs think that, or even Sage, but it’s certainly the politicians - the decision makers - stance.
I’d be stunned if Drakeford was that stupid, but equally the first to condemn him if true. While not illegal it’s certainly not in the spirit of what he’s asking others to do. |
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Seems to have stemmed from one Twitter user so we'll have to see. The Welsh Government has denied it and to be honest Drakeford would easily be seen and caught if he is doing that.
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That’s not to say tedious or unfunny people can’t by chance see politicians in places they’d rather not be seen. |
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Thats why we will still be screwed next Christmas, bowing to the anti-maskers and vaxers. ---------- Post added at 18:57 ---------- Previous post was at 18:53 ---------- Quote:
99.9% have mobile phones, I have my QR code available on that. ---------- Post added at 18:58 ---------- Previous post was at 18:57 ---------- This is the biggest problem, people making excuses, once they start burying family members they will soon change there mind. |
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99.9% of people do not have a mobile phone, and those that do, dont all have "smart" phones. (Also, many that do, dont really use them as smart phones). Quote:
For the record, I know a few people now, all who have caught it in recent weeks, all of them shook if off like a cold or flu. In fact, if not for the hype now involved, they would not have thought anything more about it. |
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Homer please tell me how I display a QR thingy on my Nokia dumb phone got fed up with so called smart phones or should I also be compelled in your plan to have a smartphone?.
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If someone is excluded because they are (or aren't) a certain color, race, gender, sexuality etc, that is bad because they aren't things you can change. Gender is a little more complicated, but the principle is the same. There are people who are unable to have the vaccine for medical reasons, but they can still carry something saying they are exempt. But for most people, the vaccine is a choice, and like every choice, there are consequences. Saying they are the victims of prejudice just because they aren't allowed to go for (say) a Pizza is like saying a smoker is the victim of prejudice because they aren't allowed in by the same Pizza restaurant.. ---------- Post added at 14:27 ---------- Previous post was at 14:24 ---------- Quote:
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It is worth remembering that the UK has one of the lowest numbers of practising doctors per population (including GPs and hospital doctors) in the EU. Additionally, the number of nurses is lower than comparable countries like France, Germany and The Netherlands. I would also point out that the plea of ‘we are no less efficient than anyone else’ is not exactly reassuring and does not mean there is no scope for substantial savings to be made. As for the government wanting to implement a system similar to the US over here, there is no truth to that. Labour have said consistently since the 1950s that the Conservatives want to privatise the NHS. Well, here we are in 2022, and that has not happened. What is more, such a premise has been denied by Conservatives equally consistently. Doubtless Labour will still be claiming that the Conservatives want to destroy the NHS in 2122 as part of their strategy to ‘weaponise’ the NHS. |
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There is absolutely no chance of any government in the foreseeable future introducing a health service based on private insurance. It is politically impossible, no matter how fond of the idea a few dislocated nut jobs on the Tory far right might be. “Tories will privatise the NHS” has been a standard Labour attack line for the best part of 50 years now. They brandish it like an evil shaman stick every election, without fail. Note, however, that despite there being more Tory governments than Labour ones since the NHS’s inception, it’s still here, it’s still free at point of need and there isn’t even a whiff of a national debate about changing that. |
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From the Daily Mail.
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So [we] cannot make good tests, and china can ?
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What a surprise, a totally misleading quote in a paper.
"they have not passed checks in the UK" is clearly designed to imply they fail UK checks. What they really mean [apparently] is they havent been tested yet, but should pass when they do. |
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I guess it's good enough to induce more media frenzy reporting though :rolleyes: |
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"NHS England said 10,462 people were in hospital in England with COVID as of 8am on 29 December. This is up 48% from a week earlier and is the highest figure since 1 March.
In London, 3,310 people were in hospital with COVID on 29 December, up 63% week-on-week and the highest number since 16 February." "90% of patients ending up in intensive care had not received booster vaccines." "More than 90% of community COVID cases in England are now Omicron, according to latest data. As it is now by far the dominant variant, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said it would stop providing Omicron-specific daily updates from 31 December." https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...-says-12505810 |
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It also doesn't give a figure for those in hospital 'solely' with Covid. Shit reporting . . . who do you trust ;) |
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I treat that statement with contempt. |
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---------- Post added at 13:24 ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 ---------- Interesting . . . Novak Djokovic will compete at Australian Open with medical exemption https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/59865959 Quote:
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Looks to me . . I could be wrong . . that the tennis mob are really really keen for World number one Novak Djokovic to defend his Australian Open title . . . obviously not for any monetary gain ;) |
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NI https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1641304624 https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1641304624 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/d...-db-311221.pdf |
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Omicron changes the picture slightly, but there's still a school of thought that natural immunity is better as the body recognises the whole virus rather than the (now heavily mutated) spike proteins which the vaccines inject. I'm not the greatest Nole fan, but he is probably the greatest men's tennis player the world has ever seen, given that Fed won't play, Nadal has been injured much of the last term, and has also just had covid, and Murray has been struggling with his hip for a while now, he's really the only one of the Big Four still left - and the younger generation haven't really seized the initiative yet. The tournament would be much worse off without him, so I suspect this is for financial/sponsorship reasons. You'd expect there would be various quarantine/testing rules on him as he isn't vaccinated but in principle you'd be asking all players, fans, ball kids, umpires, line judges etc to do daily LFTs before going... |
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Spot on mate, thinks he can do what the hell he likes, a thoroughly dislikeable **** imo. |
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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ital-activity/ |
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I've not seen any stats for N. Ireland for ages, and the ones for Wales come out in an odd 7-day cycle. |
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* So it must be true |
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Just to put things in perspective re how bad things are the latest advice on if you're having a heart attack is to phone a cab rather than an ambulance
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AGREE with you: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...told-5rvcdmm62 DISAGREE with you: https://www.lbc.co.uk/hot-topics/nhs...-staff-crisis/ |
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If somebody with a car is with them, and they can be moved, then the possibility of them being taken to hospital by car might be presented. Link Quote:
That is the true perspective. |
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Sigh! Some of you seem to have taken debate to the level of a sport.:rolleyes:
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If you were having a cardiac incident chances are you'd get ambulance or paramedic with you very quickly to start treatment before you got to hospital.
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I don’t think he’s commenting on current actual response times. |
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Starmer has to isolate for the sixth time and will miss PMQs.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...la-rayner-pmqs |
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I keep seeing reports that 100,000 key workers will have to take daily tests from next Monday.
What is a 'key worker' and why are there only 100,000 of them? explanations please :dunce: |
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Well thats nice and specific ....
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