Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Despite that, they are often wrong, aren’t they? Still, if that’s what you want to rely on to form your judgements, good luck with that.

Do you remember the surprise of the BBC when it started to dawn on them that the public had voted for Brexit? Priceless!

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

If you’re looking for precision, then they will always be wrong. There’s a margin of error, usually of +/-3 points in a properly weighted poll with decent data tracking historic trends. No polling expert worth the title will claim more than they can deliver in this regard. It’s usually the tabloid newspapers that commission the polls that selectively report the results to suit their agenda.

In the case of the Brexit referendum, the result was within the margin of error so essentially unpredictable. This was compounded by a lack of historic voting patterns to calibrate against, because unlike a general election, a Brexit referendum doesn’t occur once every 5 years. I suspect the BBC’s presumption, early on voting night, that remain would win, was grounded in a good deal of wishful thinking.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

A computer will ( certainly earlier ones, I have to admit I’m not sure about AI) only do what is told and within those parameters. As I say, AI I’m sure will may change that, but prior to this a computer can only do what it is told.

From your Ernie link.

In regards to your second link, I was referencing “lotto”, but even in regards to those more powerful systems that page littered with caveats, , etc

And whilst I accept there may be machines out there capable of near, or perhaps even true (doubtful) randomness ……..I doubt the lottery are using them for your lucky dip.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

You can use things like the coordinates on-screen of the mouse movements to generate a seed. That'll be random because it's not deterministic.

Well random enough for 99.999999% of cases. I can't think of many applications where you would need to go further than ensuring the seed is properly random.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds:

Liz Truss: 6/1
Tom Tugendhat: 8/1
Jeremy Hunt: 8/1
Ben Wallace: 10/1
Penny Mordaunt: 21/2
Rishi Sunak: 12/1
Sajid Javid: 17/1
Michael Gove: 20/1
Nadhim Zahawi: 23/1
Dominic Raab: 33/1

@oddschecker

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Patel not even on the list? Problem is I don’t rate any of them.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Your fellow scouser, Nadine Dorries, is not on the list either.

Confess I'm not too familiar with Tom Tugendhat or Penny Mordaunt so suspect they've kept a clean slate.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

What are the odds for Boris? Is that a sore point or a result that will confound the pollsters?

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Ummmmmm, Boris is already the leader.
How can he have odds to be the next leader ? :dozey:

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Truss is a car crash waiting to happen, Ben Wallace might be a good choice

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Indeed. :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I imagine Keith will get the order of Lenin if Boris is replaced.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Wallace has had a good war but it's hard to tell much else about how he would perform as PM. I don't know why the Tory Membership is so keen on Truss, I said before I think they overestimate how much culture war issues help in the UK.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I think a great many of the Tory grassroots are still dreaming of Thatcher 2.0 and a hard-talking female, senior MP inevitably draws hopeful comparisons. Personally I find it hard to get past that cheese disgrace speech.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I wasn't criticising the list, I was simply pondering what the odds would be if Boris was standing for PM now.

---------- Post added at 09:11 ---------- Previous post was at 09:09 ----------

You are correct on all counts. She seems to be doing well at the moment, but I don't really rate her.

That cheese speech was definitely cringeworthy.