Cable Forum - Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

They say that when pressed or when they're worried they look too weak. Let's see how this translates to policy or if France and Germany are still lukewarm on their support for Ukraine's wish to keep the war going rather than come to an agreement.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61829953

Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36125523)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61829953

Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked

Lavrov/Putin if their lips are moving they are lying.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

BREAKING: European Commission recommends Ukraine is given candidate status to join EU. - Adam Parsons, Sky News.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36125533)

BREAKING: European Commission recommends Ukraine is given candidate status to join EU. - Adam Parsons, Sky News.

I wonder what quid-pro-quo was given by Ukraine. For example, agreeing to a negotiated settlement with Russia (if that's possible) and ceding territory - notwithstanding Macron's utterances.

Quote:

Macron's urging that a Ukrainian victory is necessary came after the French leader has faced a backlash in recent weeks for his rhetoric on the war and Russia. There were some mixed reactions to a speech he delivered Wednesday that urged negotiations between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's minister for foreign affairs, and some U.S. lawmakers also sharply criticized Macron earlier this month for saying in an interview that Russia should not be humiliated by the end of the war.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-mus...emarks-1716571

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36125011)

It's Ukraine's choice to fight.

But not a choice for the men of fighting age being held hostage while their partners and children flee.

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Their concern isn't that America is funding them but they're not funding them enough.

Of course if America didn't fund them at all, the threshold for a ceasefire or peace agreement would move.

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The ultimate conclusion of your argument is America should stop funding Ukraine so they're forced to surrender on Russian terms and you're trying to portray this as a position of concern.

The ultimate conclusion of my argument is there will be hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dead and permanently displaced Ukranians who fought further (and for longer) on the basis of Western promises that likely won't be fulfilled longer term.

Something as frivolous as US gasoline prices at the mid-terms for example could result in them being leaned on to make an agreement that was absolutely achievable 70 days ago.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'portraying' concern. My concern for Ukrainians is absolute - however war is rarely a zero sum game. While it might suit some armchair generals out there to watch this play out to apply what they see to hypothetical future combat scenarios that doesn't suit me in the slightest. It's not a price to pay in Ukrainian blood.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36125596)

But not a choice for the men of fighting age being held hostage while their partners and children flee.

A lot clearly want to fight but that's a war for you. The same happened here in the World Wars. You've faced with a threat to your existence as a nation.

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Of course if America didn't fund them at all, the threshold for a ceasefire or peace agreement would move.

Of course it would but with less favourable terms to Ukraine. Again, you want to deprive them the money need to defend themselves.

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I'm not sure what you mean by 'portraying' concern. My concern for Ukrainians is absolute - however war is rarely a zero sum game. While it might suit some armchair generals out there to watch this play out to apply what they see to hypothetical future combat scenarios that doesn't suit me in the slightest. It's not a price to pay in Ukrainian blood.

You're ignoring what Ukraine wants. They want to keep fighting. They don't want to surrender their people and land to the Russians. If they want to come to terms then that's their right and if they want to keep fighting that's their right as well.

If someone invaded the UK would you want to concede parts of it so avoid deaths? It's pacifist nonsense.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36125603)

A lot clearly want to fight but that's a war for you. The same happened here in the World Wars. You've faced with a threat to your existence as a nation.

Of course it would but with less favourable terms to Ukraine. Again, you want to deprive them the money need to defend themselves.

You're ignoring what Ukraine wants. They want to keep fighting. They don't want to surrender their people and land to the Russians. If they want to come to terms then that's their right and if they want to keep fighting that's their right as well.

If someone invaded the UK would you want to concede parts of it so avoid deaths? It's pacifist nonsense.

:tu:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36125603)

If only that emotive question could find a simple answer.

From the armchair, “we would fight them in the beaches, etc”. If you were the one being sent to the front line, leaving behind your dependent family, what would you choose to do? Preservation of life has more than one facet.

On balance, I think the UK people would elect on a majority basis to resist invasion - but unlike Ukraine, the feared event is a very long way from likely.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

The thing is the UK population on the whole would not have any fight in them so many snowflakes would need a dark room to go lie down in, so yes I would want to concede parts to avoid deaths

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36125607)

If only that emotive question could find a simple answer.

Precisely. Narrowing the scope to discussion of war to such emotive terms denies opportunity to consider reality or what a rational actor would consider a viable outcome.. The outcome of wars is rarely binary with a clear winner or loser. The political settlement afterwards needs to be sustainable to for peace to hold.

I don’t hold Damien’s optimism that many Ukrainian men would stay to fight over seek refuge with their families in Europe. Comparisons with the World Wars are simply invalid because there was simply nowhere to go.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.

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Is Lithuania on the verge of dragging NATO into Ukraine war? Moscow warns it will 'take actions' after alliance member blocks trains carrying goods to Russia's Kaliningrad territory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

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Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36125750)

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

They'll have to send it by sea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36125750)

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

Hard to see what “actions” Russia can take here. Obviously it’s not going to do anything military - even if it had the spare manpower and equipment it’s hardly going to move against a NATO member. It’s highly inconvenient for Russia but it can still access Kaliningrad by sea.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36125750)

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

I mooted something similar on the 9th of March…

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post

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Originally Posted by Carth View Post
Paul answered before you questioned

I also learnt in my 'early' years, that it can be really really stupid to have a fight against somebody with nothing to lose . . . which, with all the sanctions and things, is getting close to what Putin has . .

That’s Paul’s view, not necessarily NATO’s…

I think the crunch point will come if Putin tries to claim the Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad* (the bit of Russia on the Baltic between Poland and Lithuania) - he has mentioned this aspiration previously, and if it happened, it would cut off Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia (by land travel) from the rest of Europe.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03...alki-corridor/

The author of this recent article makes an interesting point about the Ukraine invasion, and why we shouldn’t take it for granted that this is the end-game.

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Obviously, seizing the Suwalki corridor would entail attacking Lithuania or Poland or both, leading directly to a war between NATO and Russia. This seems illogical or at best strategically unwise for Putin. However, the West’s ability to know and understand Putin’s logic and the rationale behind his decision-making has been obviously constrained by a lack of imagination, quality intelligence, or both.

For instance, some thought it was illogical for Putin to order the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if his objective was simply to keep it out of NATO. The simmering Donbass conflict had effectively achieved this since 2014, since one of the informal requirements for alliance membership is a lack of territorial disputes with neighbors.

Additionally, no authorities in Washington or Brussels were seriously pushing for Ukrainian membership in the alliance, and Russia’s diplomats and its intelligence services surely knew this. Moreover, Putin’s recent rhetoric of grievance against the West is nothing new—these are themes he has espoused for years. So, why invade now? The answer isn’t clear, aside from the conclusion that this war is about something more than just keeping Ukraine out of NATO.

For this reason, trying to discern Putin’s intent going forward is a fool’s errand. The West cannot assume it understands how Putin might react to the cratering of the Russian economy, whether his recent rants on pushing NATO out of Central and Eastern Europe amount to policy directives, or how he might exploit his new, practically colonial relationship with Belarus, which is now hosting tens of thousands of Russian troops.

By the same token, the West therefore cannot assume that Russia won’t make a move against the Suwalki corridor just because it appears illogical. In fact, during last year’s Zapad military exercise, Russian and Belarusian troops reportedly practiced closing the Suwalki corridor by attacking from Belarus in the direction of Kaliningrad.

* home to lots of Russian combat forces, including the Russian Baltic Fleet, advanced air defenses, and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles