Cable Forum - PM Boris forms a government

Pressed on whether he would obey any rebel legislation passed this week on an extension

“He will not ask for an extension. If we do lose control of order paper and those negs undermined then he would seek an early election”

Quote:

Governments always abide by purdah rules.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky?ref...al-brexit-live

nomadking

03-09-2019 13:07

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36008558)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49557734 @11:03

From the Telegraph, BJ's/Brexit's biggest supporter.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status...itics-49557734

I think you'll find that it is and always has been, the EU that are conducting sham negotiations. If the EU are steadfastly refusing to remove the backstop, then there is nothing more to negotiate about. Even membership of the EU had a get-out clause, ie Article 50. The backstop doesn't.

BenMcr

03-09-2019 13:53

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36008560)

Even membership of the EU had a get-out clause, ie Article 50. The backstop doesn't.

Yes, it does. The get-out clause to the backstop is the 'alternative arrangements' that Boris says he already has but apparently hasn't told the EU what they are.

Chris

03-09-2019 14:21

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36008563)

Yes, it does. The get-out clause to the backstop is the 'alternative arrangements' that Boris says he already has but apparently hasn't told the EU what they are.

Not sure if you’re wilfully misunderstanding the point, but Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty can be triggered unilaterally by any EU member state. The backstop provisions of the withdrawal treaty state that the backstop may only be exited by agreement of both the UK and the EU.

If the backstop were triggered, it would be entirely possible for the UK to be kept in a form of associate membership of the EU, yet without voting privileges or representation, simply by the EU’s refusal to allow us to leave. Given that these circumstances would most likely transpire in the middle of trade deal negotiations, there is a very clear and obvious incentive for the EU to hold the backstop over the UK government as a means of extracting concessions.

The backstop is absolutely absurd and intolerable to any sovereign democratic state.

nomadking

03-09-2019 14:26

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36008563)

Yes, it does. The get-out clause to the backstop is the 'alternative arrangements' that Boris says he already has but apparently hasn't told the EU what they are.

But the EU has to agree to anything and everything. There is no ability to unilaterally stop it.
Withdrawal Agreement pages 305&308

Quote:

but that this
Protocol is based on the third scenario of maintaining full alignment with those rules of the Union's
internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South
cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement, to apply unless and
until an alternative arrangement implementing another scenario is agreed,
...

4. The objective of the Withdrawal Agreement is not to establish a permanent relationship
between the Union and the United Kingdom. The provisions of this Protocol are therefore intended
to apply only temporarily, taking into account the commitments of the Parties set out in Article
2(1). The provisions of this Protocol shall apply unless and until they are superseded, in whole or in
part, by a subsequent agreement.

Hugh	03-09-2019 14:55

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36008544)

That meeting was planned way in advance. The one where it’s members were not allowed to attend. Doesn’t matter. Remainiac Hammond, would still face Whip being withdrawn.

---------- Post added at 06:45 ---------- Previous post was at 06:41 ----------

That’s not a valid point of order. It doesn’t need two thirds vote to revoke the fixed term parliament act altogether.

However, 3 problems.

1) The government doesn't really have a majority, especially if it removes the whip from rebels - they've got nothing to lose if they're going to be de-selected (bit of an own-goal, that one...)
2) Any bill to revoke the FTPA would be amendable.
3) It would have to go through the Lords, so it might take some time to call an election.

Of course, it could be done by government calling a vote of no confidence in the government. It’s "you couldn’t make it up territory"...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2019/09/1.jpg

BenMcr

03-09-2019 15:08

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36008566)

I wasn't making comment on how the get-out clause works, I was pointing out that one exists.

However, the EU have been quite clear that they don't want the backstop, but for them it has to exist to protect the integrity of their single market and customs union. The alternative is a hard border that all other 3rd party countries have with the EU where an agreement does not exist, and that then violates the Good Friday Agreement.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36008567)

But the EU has to agree to anything and everything. There is no ability to unilaterally stop it.
Withdrawal Agreement pages 305&308

Correct. It would not be the backstop without that, and would require the hard border instead in order to protect the single market and customs union.

Chris

03-09-2019 15:36

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36008570)

If Labour presents as its reason for not supporting a general election, the fact that once parliament is dissolved the date of the election is in Boris’ gift, and they don’t trust him to call it before 1 November, then it is possible to both bypass the FTPA and write the date of the legislation into law with a simple bill that states that the provisions of the FTPA are temporarily set aside in order to hold an election on X date.

The objection about the date sounds like little more than a convenient excuse. A General Election (2019) Bill would smoke them out. It would also require only a simple majority to pass.

Damien

03-09-2019 16:20

Re: PM Boris forms a government

You have to be careful with setting the date in law as then Parliament can’t change it. The reason the PM has the power to change it is in case there is an emergency. Such as a terrorist attack, and so it would be better to delay a week or so.

Dave42

03-09-2019 16:40

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall
·
1m

BREAKING: Philip Lee crosses the floor and joins the Lib Dems.

The government now has a majority of -1.

denphone

03-09-2019 17:16

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42 (Post 36008581)

Lewis Goodall

@lewis_goodall
·
1m

BREAKING: Philip Lee crosses the floor and joins the Lib Dems.

The government now has a majority of -1.

Here is part of the statement from Phillip Lee explaining his defection to the Lib Dems.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-brexit-live

Quote:

After a great deal of thought, I have reached the conclusion that it is not possible to serve my constituents’ and country’s best interests as a Conservative member of parliament.

Quote:

I am dismayed at what the Conservative party has become, the role that it has played in feeding division and populism, in squandering a hard-won reputation for sound stewardship, and the blinkered direction in which it has set our country. Those are not my values. I will not implicitly condone these things by being party to them.

Quote:

That is why today I am joining Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats. I believe the Liberal Democrats are best placed to build the unifying and inspiring political force needed to heal our divisions, unleash our talents, equip us to take the opportunities and overcome the challenges that we face as a society - and leave our country and our world in a better place for the next generations.

Chris

03-09-2019 17:19

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Brexit really is the gift that keeps on giving, isn’t it. There’s been enough this year to last a political anorak a lifetime, and it’s not over yet.

jfman

03-09-2019 17:31

Re: PM Boris forms a government

It's compelling viewing. That and a recession house price collapse is all good news for anyone that enjoys chaos.

ianch99

03-09-2019 17:44

Re: PM Boris forms a government

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36008585)

Here is part of the statement from Phillip Lee explaining his defection to the Lib Dems.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-brexit-live

He has seen the rise of Blue Momentum and has had enough. Good on him.

So we have Red Momentum on one side and Blue Momentum on the other. Johnson is pushing through the demise of the Tory party as was so there is an up side to all of this. In the same way, the Labour of old was taken over by radicals & activists, the Tory party has gone the same way.

We just need someone with a modest amount of talent and no baggage to sweep up the vacant centre ground. It is a political open goal at the moment.

.. orders more popcorn ...

Pierre

03-09-2019 17:44

Re: PM Boris forms a government

I think an election is absolutely inevitable and now necessary.

Then all those conservatives that don't wish to stand under Johnson, and his Brexit manifesto, can do the honourable thing and decline to stand and al those that defected to Lib-Dems or as independents can stand again against a new conservative candidate, and put their case to the electorate.

Corbyn has done nothing but demand another election since 2017, so if one was offered it would be amazing if he didn't back it.

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