Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

#strongandstable
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...etters-sent-in

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

It’s looking like a no-deal. I’m hoping for a no-deal. I don’t believe the EU, or France or Germany, are going to take this seriously until no-deal is properly on the table. As soon as we establish that we’re heading for no deal, the bluff over the Irish border will be called (we’re not going to install one, there won’t be one unless the Irish decide to do so), and the backstop will be neutralised. It’s fairly obvious that Spain and France are already making plans to use the backstop as a bargaining chip in future trade negotiations. I’d rather they didn’t have the chance.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

We would still need an answer to how we deal with an open border with a country that might have different regulations. The obvious answer is a border in the Irish Sea but the DUP won't have it so...

Also the EU are probably expect the first vote to fail but think we'll either vote again or go the the Norway-for-now option.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

If a hard border is put in place, it will be done by the EU, not us. This backstop stuff is a complete red herring. Solutions are readily available, the EU have just got to stop being so bloody minded. If they did, TM might just get this proposed agreement through the Commons.

If the Withdrawal Agreement is voted down, the best thing would be to have no further votes and just let Article 50 come in naturally. We can then start negotiating the trade deals with the EU and other countries (work on which must be at an advanced stage by now).
Unfortunately, without the Withdrawal Agreement, this will mean some initial costs and disruption, but this will be the price of rejecting Theresa May's proposed deal. I hope people realise that.

---------- Post added at 08:23 ---------- Previous post was at 08:20 ----------

The thing is, Damien, at the point of our withdrawal, all our regulations will be the same as with the EU. So no need for a border. The trade deal we are seeking with the EU should avoid problems down the line. The EU have already said they don't want tariffs applied.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

What solutions?

---------- Post added at 08:31 ---------- Previous post was at 08:30 ----------

At the start I can see a fudge being fine, i.e we just ignore the problem and hope WTO rules don't cause a problem, but when regulatory standard diverge then you need customs checks. Unless the deal with the EU is a customs union or better.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

But, Damien, TM is proposing a common rulebook and no tariffs with the EU. So what is this obsession with the border?

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Regulatory alignment is the solution to the border and the common rulebook got her into trouble with her backbenches. If we're in 'a' customs union, preferably the EEA, then fine. This deal also prevents that.

But if we're not going for the deal and want a Free trade agreement only with the EU then the border will be an issue. People keep saying it won't be but never explain why. Two markets with different regulatory regimes have customs checks, custom checks require borders/infrastructure....

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I thought the whole idea was that we would have regulatory alignment with the EU!

Your proposal that we have a customs union, however, won't work, will it? That would prevent us from making trade deals of our own, which is the chief economic advantage of leaving the EU.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I know what would and does work, but you won't like it... ;)

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

How can you do trade deals if you have regulatory alignment for most, if not all, goods? A key aspect of trade deals is the aligning and changing of regulations for the various products/industries/whatever with the country you're doing the deal with.

The only reason not to have a customs union if you already have regulatory alignment is either because it isn't full regulatory alignment (which means check for some things) or you want to diverge from that later. Both would require a customs border.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Yes, but regulatory alignment in the main types of goods flowing to and from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (mainly agricultural) should not pose a big problem. For the small percentage of other goods involved, the arrangements already put forward by the UK would suffice.

---------- Post added at 09:14 ---------- Previous post was at 09:13 ----------

Nor would most people in this country, it seems...

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

Well only about a quarter actually, probably less than that now.

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

I think this Brexit will go on forever, Wish they would just get us out and let us get on with what comes next, These politicians are a back stabbers .

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

So do I, but we are deviating ourselves really, because this is not even the Brexit thread!

Re: Government & Post Election Discussion
 

EU net migration to UK falls to lowest level in almost six years.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...most-six-years