Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

And all of them disillusioned by a party in hock to the establishment and prevented from being too bold by the left wing of the party.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Restore are calling Reform "centrist"…

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Restore Britain is too far Right to appeal to most of the electorate. Lowe is not a pleasant character at all.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Kemi Badenoch said

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

No news is good news . . . . right? ;)

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

i think it's a representation of his thought process ;)

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

The Makerfield result show that Reform UK has peaked under opresent political circumstances.

However, Labour won’t be able to turn things round (imo) because Burnham hasn’t explained how he will obtain significant economic growth.

So, after a short honeymoon and some deft work by Farage, I reckon Reform UK will rise again. Farage should consult me! Maybe OB can arrange that!


---------- Post added at 11:22 ---------- Previous post was at 11:20 ----------


Sometimes “wrong”. What goes on behind closed doors can be bad news.

Anyway, it’s Labour per se that’s bad news. Burnham is likely no more than a polished turd.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

I am not sure how Reform breaks out of the 30%(ish) ceiling they seem to have. Farage and Reform are very divisive, and every time they double down on their base, they alienate everyone else. They seem to have hit a cap on Tory voters they can peel away, and the broader left-wing vote seems to be self-organising to vote against Reform by coalescing around whichever candidate is more likely to win.

Restore seems to be a bit of a paper tiger. Still, they're clearly also scaring Reform into doubling down on populist nativism, which again alienates anyone else they hope to reach.

How do they square that circle? It's the same problem the Greens will have if they ever do pose a serious threat to Labour, given their extreme naivety on foreign affairs (at best!) and more insane positions alienate anyone beyond a hard core base.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Reform seems to have hit a brick wall. It's done well in local government elections but has failed to win the last three by-elections. It still remains dependent on Farage's personality which is a risk particularly given the investigation into his undisclosed £5m gift.

Farage's own popularity has decreased (65% have an unfavourable opinion of him v 59% a year ago) and the Party's appeal to women has inevitably suffered after poor vetting of its Makerfield candidate let in someone who had previously proclaimed himself a sexist.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Failed to win the last four by-elections…

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Makerfield, Aberdeen South, Caerphilly, Gorton & Denton show it's more than "possibly so". The right are hopelessly split at the moment. Unless Reform's backers change ships to the Conservatives, I can't see this improving.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

Mostly right, Andrew. Just the £5m gift remark: I think that’s now yesterday’s story and thus no longer material.

As I’ve already said, peak Reform UK has passed - for now because the British public is fickle.


---------- Post added at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:50 ----------

Kemi needs to seize this chance and get some positive headlines. She could start by reshuffling her top team and getting rid of losers such as Cleverly, Atkins and Patel. That would produce headlines and the political commentators would do the rest.

Re: Reform UK's chronicles
 

It's tomorrow's news story when the investigation publishes its announcement.

For now, the direct impact of the £5m undisclosed gift is that Farage is keeping a lower profile as a result and avoiding interviews.