Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Former MD of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn offers his thoughts - largely negative about the current IMF policies:

http://fr.slideshare.net/DominiqueSt...7-tweet-greece

This, if true, is absolute dynamite:

EDIT: Fundamentally Merkel is stuffed here. The arrogance of the EU and the Euro-project alongside the obsession with ever-closer union is put into stark focus when it's pointed out, as noted by the Greek Finance Minister, that the 'procedure' for a country to leave the Euro simply doesn't exist.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The referendum is just them, as you say, refusing to take responsibility. They said things would change and they would get a better deal, they went to the EU who effectively said 'No'. They don't want to either sign up to a lesser deal than promised or take reasonability for the consequences of default.

The EU may be screwing over Greece but no one is being honest with them that default and losing the Euro isn't going to be easy either. No one has told them them that whichever path they take they cannot afford the society they want or at least not with a lot of tax reform. The days of low taxation and massive pensions are over.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

On the flip side try telling the Greeks that more of the same will somehow work in the context of this, Damien.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/5.png

Germany want to ram austerity down Greece's throat as they, voluntarily, did it to themselves and it kinda worked. Of course it worked because the Euro kept their exports relatively cheap and provided a ready made market in the rest of the Eurozone but let's not go into minor issues.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Greeks overspent on employing people in non-jobs, on increasing salaries, on increasing pensions and entitlements. They didn't collect taxes, they made business difficult and expensive. How on earth was anything going to go right? That is ongoing spending. That is what has to be cut back. It would be easy if they had spent it on the household equivalent of several flash holidays a year. In that situation you can cut back on the holidays without having to cut back on other household spending. Is anybody going to invest there, whilst there is a government that might well take the business away from you?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

This says what I would say better than I could.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/local/2015/06/4.png

Greece have made pretty much unprecendented cutbacks. The Troika demand more of the same even though, per my earlier image, it isn't working, and the former MD of the IMF admits it isn't working.

Greece are not blameless, but are being hung out to dry to support the 'EU' project.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

Any supposed improvements will be because of austerity imposed upon them. Without that constraint they will let loose again with the excessive spending.

If the GDP has plummeted, how can any alleged "cyclically adjusted surplus" exist?

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I recommend a course in economics. It will fill you in on why, if GDP has plummeted, a cyclically adjusted surplus can exist.

That you ask the question indicates you don't know what a cyclically adjusted surplus is.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

I didn't know either, so I looked it up:

The excess of a government's total income over expenditure assuming normal levels of economic activity. This assumes that tax and consumer spending are constant.

Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...#ixzz3eKy9CtMm

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

And there's the kicker!

This assumes tax and consumers spending are constant - the taxes haven't been constant for decades.....

Krugman's article (where I found your IMF chart), states that Greece ran a small budget surplus last year, if you didn't count interest (I am assuming on Government debt) - that's like saying my bank account is in credit, if you don't count my mortgage payments or HP loan repayments.

He is being 'economical with the actualité'*......


*see what I did there? ;-)

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

... and yet all of Greece's well known and evidently endemic economic problems still didn't prevent them being welcomed into the club they're now destabilising. It's all a bit FIFA...

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

ECB pulled the plug from the Greek banks! just now

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33303105

---------- Post added at 10:07 ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 ----------

As this situation worsens, I wonder whether there's going to be any resentment or action taken against those who're insulated against the problem e.g. the ex-pats who can rely upon external sources of income such as overseas investments and pensions. Once the ATM's start working again, there'll be those who'll have money to withdraw and those who don't. Many of the former won't even be Greek and I don't suppose Germans will be too popular.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

The Greek banks didn't really need the liquidity assistance. This has not been a case of people withdrawing large sums of their savings. It is withdrawing money they are going to need to spend on everyday things in the near future. They are withdrawing it just a bit sooner than they would otherwise do, ie Friday rather than risk waiting until Monday.

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

No, they will not pull the plug. Robert Preston was wrong, his sources were rubish and BBC caused panic for no reason

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 

But legally they cannot lend further funds to an insolvent bank.