Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

I do not think Putin is entirely rational which makes him unpredictable. Apparently most of his personal wealth is being "looked after" by various oligarchs. If you go after these high net worth individuals you have have more leverage.

I heard that the Russian economy is quite resilient to external pressures and if they still are selling gas with rising prices due to the situation, they have contingency.

I am not convinced that this Government, given that amount of Russian donor leverage that exists, will do the right thing. Also, Putin will see a weakened British PM, ridiculed at home, and conclude that his ability to command on the international stage as illusory.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Please tell me what is 'the right thing'?

. . . in your opinion of course ;)

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Not sure if this 100% accurate but there are reports of Putin set to announce that Russia recognizes the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk republics, two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine who will then "officially request Russian military assistance".

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin is reportedly going to sign a decree, recognising the 2 rebel areas in the east of Ukraine as independent states.

And then Putin gets them to join The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO; Russian: Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности, romanized: Organizatsiya Dogovora o kollektivnoy bezopasnosti; Russian: ОДКБ, romanized: ODKB.

And along the same lines of NATO, an attack on any member state is considered an attack on the whole alliance. So that would just need one false flag operation, saying that Ukraine attacked either of the new states, and the entire CSTO would attack Ukraine.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Hmm, so the breakaway states can join the CSTO but Ukraine can't join NATO. A bit unfair.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

False flag? Are you saying that Ukrainian forces have never, ever attacked those areas?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

What's the weather like in St Petersburg, comrade?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Those areas being part of Ukraine.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

There has been cross "border" fighting going on for 8 years between Ukraine's armed forces and Russian-backed and Russian-armed "rebels".

Minsk 2 was supposed to sort that out, but both sides read the words of the accord differently.

Russia wants the Sea of Azov surrounded by Russia, or Russian-backed allies. It is currently a no-fly zone declared by Russia.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Putin, is just being very clever.

But in regards to whole Ukraine issue, I think the USA in particular, need to remember how they reacted to Cuba missile situation.

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Cross border? The UK TV news from some time ago had pictures of the damage. 14,000 killed didn't come from nowhere
If they declare some sort of independence, will Ukraine leave them alone or will they try to assert their authority?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Is your cryptic suggestion to recommend that the US avoids making lots of concessions like those it made to diffuse the Cuban missile crisis?

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Russian troops have entered Ukraine on a 'peacekeeping' mission

Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
 

Well I was referring to how the US reacted to an opposing military power stationing itself on your doorstep. Which is what NATO is doing if they accept Ukraine and I can full appreciate Russia’s concern.

Also Ukraine’s history with Russia is not like other communist countries Russia added to the CCCP post war. Many Russians considered Ukraine part of Russia, and many Ukrainians consider themselves Russian. It’s not like a hostile invasion, if it were to happen, a decent % of the populace may welcome it.

In regards to US concessions regarding Cuba, apart from removing their nuclear weapons from Turkey, and not invading Cuba, I’m not aware of any others made by the US