Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36116275)

I think this campaign will be Putin’s legacy. Annexing Ukraine will not be. Even without allowing for the evidence of the past fortnight, the Russian military doesn’t have the capacity to subdue a non-compliant population of 44 million people in a territory the size of Ukraine. Add in the many problems the Russian military clearly has, and the crippling sanctions Russia is under (which will prevent it rearming for years) and it is impossible to see Russia getting much further into the country than it is at present.

The reason Russia is destroying maternity hospitals and working up pretexts for using chemical weapons is because it has realised it cannot win a conventional military campaign in Ukraine. All it has left is a berserker strategy in which it suggests there are no lengths it will not go to in an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Putin hopes thereby to force Ukraine to capitulate.

Given that western military supplies are ramping up and the civilian population (+ foreign legion) is still being mobilised, it is less likely still that Russia can hold Ukraine even if it perpetrates enough outrages to force a surrender.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116285)

I know this may sound crazy, but I hope you're wrong. I don't want to see Putin in a no win situation.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116285)

I know this may sound crazy, but I hope you're wrong. I don't want to see Putin in a no win situation.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36116287)

But if he gets deposed through being in a no-win situation, surely that would be a good thing? His successor couldn't be any worse.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36116291)

Just seen that a rouble is worth half a penny :shocked:

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36116315)

What is the basis of the Russian belief Ukraine is Nazi ?

Originally Posted by Jaymoss (Post 36116315)

What is the basis of the Russian belief Ukraine is Nazi ?

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36116317)

Calling someone else’s government a bunch of Nazis is a good way of riling up your base and winning support for your own basically Nazi plans to annexe a sovereign neighbour if you’re in Russia, where the Nazi invasion is a painful memory, and the USSR’s defeat of it a very proud one.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116316)

https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ab7...aine-far-right

But, amusingly enough, the Wagner PMC (Private Military Company, mercenaries) that Putin uses for his dirty work in Syria, and now Ukraine, is run by a neo-Nazi, Dmitry Utkin - they were the ones who tried to assassinate (twice) President Zelenskyy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...aries-12562034

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116314)

It would appear the tide is atarting to turn in Russia.



https://www.thedailybeast.com/even-r...tin-in-trouble

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36116320)

The Russian winter defeated the Nazis.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116325)

The Red Army kept the Nazis engaged in Stalingrad for five months, with proper insurgent guerrilla warfare, all whilst they were building up their own major offensive to leap frog the German lines and encircle the Germans engaged in the Battle of Stalingrad.

This offensive would ultimately be the one to go all the way to Berlin.

The Germans were poorly supplied and equipped for A prolonged Russian winter.

The Red Army defeated the Nazis, not the weather. I know you were not being flippant as what you posted is the usual trope, but the Red Army kept the Germans there, in order for the weather to make a difference.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36116225)

Ah, I see, so it’s only about picking battles we can win rather than defending what we (the western world) believe in

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36116326)

The Russians have long understood that their topography and climate are key to their defence, and they have used it, quite deliberately, to great advantage.

Napoleon, unlike Hitler, got all the way to Moscow, but the nation’s leadership evacuated the city and burned it down, then waited for the French to get too cold and hungry to stay any longer. In the event Napoleon waited too long for a Russian delegation to come and face him. By the time he and his army tried to retreat, they were hungry, demoralised and the weather was turning against them.

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36116336)

Of course it is, only a suicidal fool picks battles they cant win.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116347)

Didn’t realise Nigel was a Chelsea fan…

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116347)

Didn’t realise Nigel was a Chelsea fan…

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116347)

Didn’t realise Nigel was a Chelsea fan…

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116356)

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116374)

No doubt Belarus will go along with it.

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116398)

U.S President Joe Biden reiterates at an earlier press briefing that direct NATO confrontation with Russia, would cause World War III.

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116383)

BREAKING: U.S President Joe Biden has warned Russia, it will pay a 'severe price' if it uses chemical weapons in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36116399)

Be interesting to know what the 'severe price' for using chemical weapons is then

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116402)

He couldn’t give a toss about Biden, he wouldn’t be doing what he’s doing if he did.

---------- Post added at 21:41 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------



Much the same as Obama’s….the Dems in the US have form for being impotent with their “ red lines”

Cross this and I’ll do……………………..absolutely nothing, so there.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36116405)

Well it's got to be better than the previous incumbent who is Putin's no 1 Fan Boy.

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36116405)

Well it's got to be better than the previous incumbent who is Putin's no 1 Fan Boy.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116412)

Funnily enough, he wasn’t brave enough to invade whilst he was in office…………………..

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36116418)

But interestingly, the arguments advanced then about not upsetting Russia are the same arguments we're advancing for not imposing a no-fly zone or donating aircraft to Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116412)

Funnily enough, he wasn’t brave enough to invade whilst he was in office…………………..

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36116421)

He should've, Donny's America first policy might have made it much easier for him to get away with, plus knowing that guys deeply flawed character he may have even held a grudge against Zelensky for his second impeachment, that's without the creepy Putin's a genius message and some aid or other yesterday saying the thing donny most admired about vlad was that he could have anyone he wanted killed!!! All speculation really, we'll never know what would've happened, won't stop people trying to make political capital out of other peoples suffering though, especially aggravating given the amount of US politicians who have apparently taken money from Russians.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36116418)

I think it's now apparent that the West responded too weakly towards Russia in 2014 although that's with hindsight. But interestingly, the arguments advanced then about not upsetting Russia are the same arguments we're advancing for not imposing a no-fly zone or donating aircraft to Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116432)

I think the relevant word was "to", not "in"...

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36116433)

Yes I know, which is why I said 'Depends where the convoy is'

What happens when it reaches the border?

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116434)

Hopefully the Red Cross/Cresent will take over the distribution of humanitarian aid such as THIS into Ukraine itself. They are already operating in Ukraine and making deliveries.

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36116437)

Humanitarian aid is slightly different to military aid ;)

IMO the 'he said, she said' comments from both sides are nothing more than yet more provocative guff and bluster . . . we should all realise that a military convoy won't get hit until it's actually in Ukraine.*


*unless of course, Putin is ready and willing to kick start Armageddon :erm:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36116452)

Moscow officials say that western sanctions could lead to the International Space Station (ISS) crashing. It's claimed that these measures could 'Disrupt the operation of Russian vessels servicing the ISS. The Russian section of it weighs 500 tons and helps to correct it's orbit'.

Whether this is correct or simply more Russian lies/scaremongering, I have no idea.

Source: BBC1 Lunchtime News.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36116467)

We keep being told how the Russian invasion is a complete cluster puck, how they’ve lost so many men and assets etc. Yet they are still continuing and advancing. Ukraine cannot win this. It’s not about if, but about when, Russia will depose Zelenskyy.

As I have said from the start. I foresee no scenario in this operation where Putin doesn’t achieve most of his objectives.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36116480)

And if that does happen, I can foresee years of insurgency against the puppet government and occupying troops - another Afghanistan, but with shorter supply chains…

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36116484)

On a lighter note, many companies will start to change Chicken Keiv's to Chicken Kyiv's.

Originally Posted by Itshim (Post 36116488)

Am I the only one to have been told ( messaged) from unknow person in the states !!!!:erm: about sending messages to people in Russia. Just says to find it :dozey: and make up my own mind if l will join in . Seems to be about the war ,but failed to find anything . Just interested to see more :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36116494)

I assume it's about this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60697261

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116511)

Very readable article about the now possible outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war….snippet of it quoted below. Whole article is written by a Chinese academic, obviously sanctioned by Chinese Communist Party. Dr Mike Martin recommends it, saying Putin has screwed it up for the Chinese and they now need to ditch him.



https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei...-china-choice/

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116511)

Very readable article about the now possible outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war….snippet of it quoted below. Whole article is written by a Chinese academic, obviously sanctioned by Chinese Communist Party. Dr Mike Martin recommends it, saying Putin has screwed it up for the Chinese and they now need to ditch him.



https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei...-china-choice/

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36116514)

While most of that quote (not yours) seems to be stating the obvious, apart from the last bit about it being worse for Putin. That part don't matter to him, what ever happens he'll see it as a win. My opinion is the only way this will end good if it's done via a military coup because he's not going to back down or show any kind of weakness. I hope I'm wrong but he's looking to do anything to make something bad happen.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116506)

Breaking: Russian aviation hit in a significant way again - this time, by Bermuda. Bermuda revokes the licenses of 745 Russian aircraft (that’s 50% of Russia’s airline fleet).

Note: The Majority of aircraft flying for Russian airlines are registered in Bermuda for tax avoidance.

https://fl360aero.com/detail/big-ber...n-aircraft/863

Bermudian sanctions against Russia begin to bite

Also

Foreign Lessors Must Repossess Jets From Russia: What Now?



https://simpleflying.com/foreign-les...-russian-jets/

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116524)

BREAKING: Deputy energy minister: Ukraine restores power supply at Chernobyl power plant, controlled by the Russian forces.

It means that the critically important cooling system will operate normally again.- Kyiv Independent.

---------- Post added at 19:06 ---------- Previous post was at 18:12 ----------

Instagram will cease to work from Midnight Russian time. It becomes the latest internet social media site to stop working in Russia, as it struggled to contain its own narrative on its own people.

---------- Post added at 19:33 ---------- Previous post was at 19:06 ----------

Ukraine says that there were no foreign citizens among the 35 people killed in the missile attack on the military training ground in western Ukraine on March 13.

Earlier, Russia claimed that the air strike killed "180 foreign mercenaries." - Kyiv Independent

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36116519)

Having worked for an airline this won't affect them massively, they will get them done elsewhere, say china?


We moved from the British CAA to the Belgian BCAA the only real notice was the plane reg changed from G-xxxx to OO-xxxx.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116536)

Doubt China would help considering they've refused to send aircraft parts.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116584)

A French activist broke into the villa of Putin's daughter Katherine Tikhonova in Biarritz, France, changed the locks in the house and invited refugees from Ukraine.

Priceless.

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/03/f...s-locks-putins

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36116588)

BREAKING: Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov: Russia may seize large Ukrainian cities.

As of March 14, Russian troops have seized only one Ukrainian regional capital – Kherson – but they are also trying to enter Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Mariupol. - Kyiv Independent

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36116595)

My favourite aircraft tracking site - https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ (click on the 'U' at the top to filter on military aircraft) is showing a lot of NATO surveillance activity in Poland and Romania today. Air radar, air defense surveillance, ground movement surveillance and various tankers

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36116597)

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36116598)

It is! Been watching a B-52 go on a little bombing run over Norway and back to RAF Fairford today - https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae58b2

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116608)

Financial Times: China poised to help Russia. According to unamed officials, China has suggested that it is willing to provide military aid to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. It is not yet clear if China has already started providing support.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncatego...o-help-russia/

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116615)

The Hague sets date for ruling on Russia's war.

Ukraine is requesting that Russia be ordered to end its war and withdraw troops from the country. The International Court of Justice will issue a ruling on March 16.

Kyiv Independant.

I doubt Putin cares what the ICoJ has to say or rules on it.

Also from Kyiv Independant:

During the “Vremya” news program on Russia’s main TV channel, Maria Ovsyannikova, a Channel One employee, rushed in front of the camera with a poster saying “stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda.”

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1647301903

Here is a video she made shortly before (with subs). No doubt she knew what her future was. A very brave woman.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36116615)

The Hague sets date for ruling on Russia's war.

Ukraine is requesting that Russia be ordered to end its war and withdraw troops from the country. The International Court of Justice will issue a ruling on March 16.

Kyiv Independant.

I doubt Putin cares what the ICoJ has to say or rules on it.

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36116627)

https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abr...owner-12565984



Interesting!

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36116627)

https://news.sky.com/story/roman-abr...owner-12565984



Interesting!