Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I think it's entirely unreasonable that any person or of average intelligence would describe consistently spending more than you earn as "fully costed'.

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 19:20 ----------

A mortgage is debt to fund the purchase of an asset. I'd say consistently borrowing to fund your annual expenditure is more like a payday loan.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Oh I enjoy car crash television as well.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Diane Abbot. :D

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Facepalm :D

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

As has been mentioned taking on debt to fund an asset, especially one which creates further value, is different to taking on debt to sustain day to day spending.

Taking on debt to fund investment in infrastructure is not what New Labour are criticised for. It was funding annual spending via increasing deficits. This was the 'bad state of the economy' people are referring too likewise when they say Labour didn't 'fix the roof whilst the run was shining'. The whole justification for austerity and the central project of the Conservative Government from 2010-2016 was to eliminate the deficit.

When people say 'balance the books' they mean the budget and not investment in things like HS2.

If Boris Johnson intends to fund social care via running higher deficits then this isn't a costed proposal, this isn't balancing the books and it is ultimately kicking the bill down the road until it's picked up by future governments.

If you count that as 'costed' then fine but it makes the discussion pointless because ultimately everything we spend will be funded by debt and the entire argument OB was making about the Labour government is undermined.

(There is an argument that running permeant deficits is sustainable so long as the economy grows faster but that's more a lefty vision of the world ;) )

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Depends who the wealth is being created for - if it’s for Venture Capitalists, Hedge Funds, Oligarchs, and Offshore Funds, that doesn’t fund improved public services.

The "trickle down" effect has been proven not to actually happen - all that happens is the wealth gets further consolidated in the top 0.1%.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

If his experience with the garden bridge, Routemasters and the cable car is anything to go by, then I'm afraid the answer is just two letters long.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

exactly it trickle up economics that's what tories are best at making the rich more richer

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

:tu:

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Borrow to invest - is the road to success.

Borrow to spend - is the road to the end.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

+1

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

You could write the Tory manifesto Hugh ! ;) Will you be out campaigning for Bozza when the GE comes ?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Which is?

And creating wealth for who?

For instance, the people who own Wal-Mart are wealthy, but their workers need food stamps...

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Why bother creating 'wealth' when it gets spent on crap?

This brilliant high speed rail link will cost £billions, but the NHS is falling apart and schools are going bankrupt :rolleyes:

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

What ? The 'not we' poor people ?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

OK, I'll keep it simple - you said "I do at least give him credit for understanding the core principle of creating wealth."

What is the core principle of creating wealth?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

OK, then...

I thought it was creating markets for goods and services that people want and can afford, and also ensuring people earn/keep enough to recycle their earnings by purchasing goods and services, but also pay their fair share of taxes to support the things we value in society.

Depends if one means wealth for individuals or a wealthy society, which isn’t solely monetary...

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I'd love you to give an example of each and tell us how it's fundamentally different. I bet you can't :)

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

It’s a simplistic two liner but the underlying fundamentals are quite true. Borrowing long term to meet day to day, month to month expenditure is more problematic than borrowing to “invest” in for example infrastructure projects that will yield long term economic benefits.

£30bn on the right infrastructure project (e.g. HS2 - note I’m not saying that is the right one it’s only an example) could employ thousands of people directly, tens of thousands more in the areas around construction. Many will be highly paid, skilled and relatively stable jobs. If the project reduces the costs to business, takes pressure off housing in the south east then it could yield benefits realised in the long term far in excess of £30bn. It has to be the right project though and not a big damp squib.

Note it's going to be easy to criticise the above specific to HS2 which is why I'm specifically not defending it.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I'd love to but JFman did it for me.

Borrow money to just pay directly for public services and you'll always be borrowing that money.

Borrow to invest in projects, that increase productivity, create jobs and strengthen the economy, and you'll raise taxes to pay for your public services and pay of the debt that you borrowed.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I don't often agree with Pierre ;)

You could borrow your way out the troughs in an economic cycle but that's a careful calculation and by exception.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Don't borrow on anything that doesn't (normally) appreciate. Good for personal as well as national finances. The difference is you can choose not to get that new ?? and make do but nationally you are choosing for others.

The problem is the holes are nearly all "infinite". No matter how much you spend, someone will miss out. Projects nearly all over run or cost too much, usually because they aren't managed well and there are too many fingers in the pie looking out for their own interests.

When it comes down to it, our leaders have forgotten that they are really our servants.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Not true. Investment, underwritten by borrowing, invariably applies to "assets" that do not "appreciate" as you put it. Investing to improve the NHS, for example, does not lead to an appreciating asset in the way you have alluded to.

The mistake is to transpose maxims applying to personal finance to the national macro-economic stage ..

---------- Post added at 18:10 ---------- Previous post was at 18:08 ----------

They have not forgotten. They know *exactly* who they are responsible to ... and it is not the vast majority of people in this country.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I think you need to think more deeply than this. For example, you say that investing in the NHS does not lead to an appreciating asset. Yet in believing that, you are completely ignoring the loss of productivity resulting from delays in treatment by the NHS and the decline in the nation's health resulting from delayed treatments and a lack of availability of appropriate remedial treatments. If you are relatively healthy and have not had to rely on their responses, you are likely to be completely ignorant of the problems patients face with its inefficiency.

I appreciate that many socialists don't like the comparisons between managing household budgets and the management of the national economy, but the same general principles apply.

---------- Post added at 19:36 ---------- Previous post was at 19:32 ----------

On the contrary, MP's are responsible to their (whole) electorate.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Any investment in the NHS will only serve to lessen the amount you may have to spend on the NHS. Which is a good thing, but to pay for the NHS you need to to be directing your borrowing to fund projects that will increase your economic output and not at directly funding the NHS (there will be a blend obviously).

Also borrowing to increase spending on public services, increasing massive public sector jobs, a favourite of Labour, to reduce jobless figures is not the answer. current employment figures in this age of austerity shows that it isn’t necessary.

HS2, I think is a good thing and necessary and the links to the North far more important than Birmingham.

Northern Cross Rail and linking that to HS links to Manchester and Leeds is what is required. But it needs to be within the next 10 years and the problem we are so terrible at delivering big infrastructure projects on time, in budget and within a decent timeline we miss the opportunities.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

The NHS is a continuing expense. It's not the same thing unless you're talking about building hospitals or something. Every year the NHS requires funding so to make it sustainable you need to meet that funding via income not debt. You can borrow to fund HS2 because ultimately the bulk of that funding will end and you can start paying it back over a longer timeframe.

No, economists don't like the comparison. Households don't issue government bonds or have central banks. You can't print money. Your spending doesn't really impact the economy as a whole. You don't have the ability to literally shape the economy you're in. You Also if you spend money in a shop that's money gone for you and gained for them but government spending, at least that within the country, is money moving around the same system. That changes quite a bit about how you make decisions.

For what we're talking about the comparison with households work but really it would break down if went any further. It gets to what I said earlier that some economists don't see an issue with governments running managed deficits.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I am thinking deeply I assure you. What is not needed is a cartoon-like 2 dimensional analysis of the complex socio-economic challenges. The application of simplistic analogies to reduce these issues to sound bites is why we are here today. "Labour bad, Tories good", "Free Market good, Nationalisation bad", etc."

The 4 decades old free market economy has run its course. It has failed to deliver what the original proponents promised. We are in the end game. If the country survives the No Deal abyss, the centre ground of politics lies vacant to accomodate a new social democratic approach: one that discards the blinkered Old Labour, New Labour, Right Wing Tory mindset.

The future will have to redeploy the wealth held in the hands of the few to invest in *all* the country for the benefits of *all* the citizens. The climate emergency demands no less. The wealthy do not care about you or me and they do not care about the planet.

Johnson claims to be wanting to spend 3 billion for the neglected North to try and address some of the reasons so many felt "left behind" and disenfranchised. To put this in context, the City of London had a bonus pool, remember these people already have very high salaries, of 20 billion in 2018. Yes, 20 billion for 1 year. These are the people that you, me and, yes, the people in the neglected north bailed out to the tune of 100's of billions in 2008 and caused the decade of austerity.

The childish responses like "politics of envy", etc. just do not work anymore. Everyone can see the evidence before their eyes. You would be a fool to believe the free market is the future. The market must be controlled: intervention where strategic and national interests dictate and control where it does not.

The system is broken and when people who cling to the debunked "rising tide floats all boats" maxim try and sell the "greed is good" snake oil, it really is depressing. I find it interesting to see the people defending the current system: they seem to be invariably those who comes from the baby boomer period where they had the fortune to find a good job easily, to have a final salary pension that we can only dream of today, to be able to easily afford to buy a house that now has risen many, many times in value and to have enjoyed the best of social service quality during this period.

These are the people who will now say: "I got where I am today through bloody hard work" .. well, truth be told, they were just very lucky. The sinister part is that they feel entitled: "how dare you take away what I worked hard to get". The awareness that the wealth and opportunities they enjoyed will never be available for the current generation is just absent. This lack of empathy underwrites a lot of the current politics.

While I am rambling on, I would like to thank Hugh for his many posts expounding, as I see it, his One Nation Conservatism. His views on how those that have most have a moral duty to those who do not is to be applauded ... loudly. Views like his are seldom heard from the political right .. :(

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Pull your finger out ,try putting "your" back into it and quit moaning that old people have every thing that you want:td:

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Why don't you try again? This time with something sensible. Go on, you can do it! We believe!!

BTW, I am old ... :)

---------- Post added at 23:28 ---------- Previous post was at 23:14 ----------

Maybe you take offence easily? The Baby Boomer term is not a sound bite rather it describes a generation that had advantages long since removed from the current one. This needs to be recognised. It is an important backdrop to the current attitudes of these people today. BTW, I am a Baby Boomer myself ..

I appreciate your engagement in the points I raised. It is refreshing when compared to some who just snipe ..

We need to step back and above Brexit. Brexit is a symptom of the failed system we are inhabiting rather the cause. Your suggestions are good: PR would go a long way to normalising politics. The corruption point: so true. Far too many politicians although eager to do good at first are ground down by the system and end up as bottom feeders waiting for the time to get their pay off i.e. directorships, plum seats on quangos, peerages, etc.

We should introduce laws precluding post-Parliament "payoffs" for minimum of X years and pay the MP's a decent salary while they serve. Remove the tie in between lobby groups and politics and you increase the likelihood that MP's will work to serve the nation rather than work to serve themselves.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

:clap: good points.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Old Boy doesn’t do economics sadly.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

The free market economy is somewhat older than that, much older, try a few hundred years.

No it hasn’t every generation ( and i’m talking over the several hundreds of years) has largely enjoyed a better standard of living and had more possessions than the one previous.

. Here we go comrade, the revolution will be televised.

Such actions by a state always work well.

The system is far from perfect but more preferable than the alternatives.

What about those that have worked hard? there are people that came from quite humble beginnings and have worked hard and now enjoy a very good standard of living, and you just dismiss them as lucky. They can’t all be lucky and i’m Afraid in this statement you do come across as envious. Unfortunately in life there will always be people doing better than you, that’s just life, bleating about it doesn’t help you.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Some of the boomer generation had to be the servants so don't beat yourself up
if you have nothing to pass on to the next generation it's not the end of the world .;)

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

If you have nothing to contribute, best say nothing. You are embarrassing yourself ...

---------- Post added at 12:39 ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 ----------

The free market I am referring to is the neocon deregulated variant started during the Thatcher/Reagan era. Peter Hitchens, a renowned conservative commentator, describes it as:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...d-Britain.html

You are just describing the basic trend. The issue is not that wealth creation has increased, the issue is how it is disproportionately distributed.

You lack imagination

See above

Yet again a simplistic, one size fits all response. Of course people can and have "worked hard". The people today who did not have the advantages I speak of also work hard. And?

You fall back on the lazy entitlement narrative where people who have had advantages, of various sorts, have "worked hard" and those that don't, and will never have them, just have to suck it up.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

We disagree. Here a Telegraph article making the points I make:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...an-beings.html

These are the facts. You may not like to hear them but there are what they are ..

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Your comments about boomers are so far off-beam its hard for me not to assume you are one. Who else could insist that black is white, up is down and move along, there’s nothing to see here, in the way you have.

This generation has consistently ridden the wave of the welfare state where and when it was most generous, bought houses cheaply while new building was a major activity and seen the value of their property soar even as the cost of their mortgages was inflated away.

You may despise the label “baby boomer” and what it insinuates but it is a cold, hard fact that those born in the two decades after WW2 continue to enjoy enormous economic advantages, often at the direct cost of their grandchildren.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

No its not, I'm not even remotely "offended".

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

:clap:

Thank you ..

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Grow up. There was a baby boom when world war 2 ended and large numbers of conscripts were demobbed and sent home. The infants born to the generation who fought the war are, and have always been, known as baby boomers. It’s a fact of history and it’s utterly hilarious of you to claim it’s discriminatory. If you’re of that generation, and especially if you’re white, male and middle class, you have been best placed of anyone in that generation to benefit from being
the first born into the welfare state and, as a young adult, among the ones who fought for, and achieved, social liberation, and also among the ones who saw housing cheap and mortgage values shrink almost by the month. You of all those who have lived in this country since the war are the most economically privileged and least discriminated against in our entire history.

I have never claimed that all of these circumstances were brought about deliberately by boomers. Some indeed were the deliberate and direct outcome of policies boomers campaigned and voted for; others were not. However, the massive wealth pile this generation now sits on, and votes to ensure it retains, is a problem that boomers as a generation are obviously unwilling to easily part with, even though they are clearly intelligent enough to understand the negative consequences their second homes and triple-locked pensions are having on their children and their grandchildren’s own future prospects.

Observe the way Teresa May crashed and burned for daring to suggest that this generation ought to pay back a little, which it could well afford to pay, out of its pension pot. That tells you everything you need to know about the priorities of this generation.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I call Godwin’s law.

I’m also disappointed that someone who comments so forthrightly as you do on economic matters apparently doesn’t understand that pensioners are not being paid the money they have saved. Current pension liability is paid out of current income, whether that be tax in the case of the state pension, or contributions and investment income in the case of private pensions.

You did not save for your pension, you paid out for your parents’ and your grandparents’, and in return the benefits you would get when the time came were defined for you. Defined, as it turns out, in a way that was totally unsustainable.

The baby boom generation has, by a mixture of luck and design, contrived to have its welfare and its pension benefits defined, whereas those coming up afterwards have only their contributions defined, and lack the inflationary circumstances and the access to the housing market that might make up some of the shortfall.

Much of the financial well-being experienced by boomers was the result of the politics of their generation. Redressing the balance must be the politics of the present generation. I would dearly love to see a genuine, one-nation Tory government lance that boil, because if it doesn’t, all it will take will be a lot of young, angry people suddenly to realise they might try voting for someone else to have a go. Then you’ll properly understand what the politics of envy looks like.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Benefits people born post ‘64 have, that we "baby boomers" didn’t have when we were your age.

Vastly improved access to Higher Education (50% vs <10%)
Better Healthcare - people bitch about waiting times, but the range of services, medication, and operations available would have been unimaginable in the 50s and 60s
Reasonable mortgage rates (I still shudder thinking about when my first mortgage, in the mid-80s, went up from 9% to 15%)
Access to technology and media that were Science Fiction when we were growing up
Reasonably cheap travel to countries, near and far
No 3 day weeks or rolling power cuts
Low unemployment rates (not the 10-12% peaks in the 80’s and 90s)
Not worrying about the constant likelihood of thermonuclear war

A thing about Final Salary pensions - not all companies offered these, even in the 70s and 80s; small/medium companies often didn’t offer pension schemes, usually only the large Corporates/Government/Local Government did. I have 8 pensions, 4 Final Salary, 4 Contribution based - my 4 Contribution based are from jobs in the 80s, 90s, and 00s, whilst the Final Salary ones are from the 70s (RAF, a whole £1400 pa), and the others are from the 00s and 10s, so those schemes were available to people born after the ‘baby boom’.

Not every "baby boomer" has gold-plated pensions, just like not every millennial eats crushed avocados on toast or can’t afford a mortgage.

Whilst I agree about the house prices point (pointing out that 80% don’t have second homes), remember when we shuffle off this mortal coil, our kids will inherit this...

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

:clap::clap::clap:

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

No one is talking about confiscation. But if people think they've paid into the state pension then they might perceive the removal of the triple-lock as such.

Some policies to redress the balance will see voters punish them at the ballot box. Chris has already pointed out what happened to the Tories when they said house value should be used to help pay for social care, rather than the taxes of the following generations. If the government were to do anything to stop inflating house prices, drastically increasing supply for example, they would be punished too.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I am really not sure what books you are reading but "Baby Boomer" is just used to identity a specific generation. Nothing more .. The facts do speak for themselves as Chris has reinforced and I, for one, feel that my generation, having gained more than most generations have done, have a duty to help the current one.

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:48 ----------

Strange times but I totally agree with Chris again :) His last sentence is prophetic:



---------- Post added at 23:06 ---------- Previous post was at 22:49 ----------

Hugh, really?

Access yes but at what cost? Lifetime of debt for most and significantly lesser prospects of getting the same vocational career we enjoyed

Thats a given, technology & science will always improve but when most people wanted to access common services e.g. GP, Dentist, A&E, Outpatients, the quality of service (appointment waiting times) available in that period was much better from my recollection.

Also add in social care during retirement. Also add in more available social housing ...

Massive deflection. The cost of a mortgage relative to the house price and salaries was highly favourable. You then factor in the elephant in that room and that is the actual ability to buy a flat/house in the SE in the first place.

Try and repeat what you did then now ...

Not sure how relevant this is to the wealth disparity of the generation in question

See above

Employed at what salary, with what prospects and job security?

Again not related to the point in question

You fall in the trap of 'Not all ...." Not the point here. The issue is the combined wealth disparity of this generation compared with those that followed. It is a cheap trick to deflect with the "Not every "baby boomer" has gold-plated pensions". Of course not. Not every one bought a house .. so what?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Back in the day we didn't waste our money on a TV in every room, a new car every 3 years, a £700 mobile phone that you 'upgrade' every year, a foreign holiday every 4 months, and superfast broadband (whut? ) in order to moan that we're skint ;)

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

No car in this household as our cousin is very helpful on that score , a monthly tariff mobile phone which one can upgrade every 2 to 3 years , Foreign holiday what the hell is that?? and reasonable broadband speeds split three ways financially.

Three TV's though although one is as ancient as the ark.;)

Budgeting the finances of the household does work wonders though.;)

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

You also had affordable housing. Pretty big advantage.

House prices used to be around 3 or 4 times annual salary rather than 7 or 8 times. Cutting out the iPhone isn't going to make up that difference.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

We (the boomers) didn't do that though. We just lived & worked in the environment that the Government gave us.

Gov't giveth, Gov't taketh away

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I just lived my life. However after seeing my mother widowed at 44 struggling to make ends meet on a very miserly widow's pension of £40 a month and in the situation of only being able to take low paying jobs because if she earned more than £10 each week her widows pension would be docked I decided I was never going to be in that situation.

So I got as good an education as I could relying on the fact that I was from a single parent family so I got a full free grant,worked at a variety of low paying jobs during my summer vacations so as to support myself and not be a burden on my mother.Not all baby boomers had it easy.

I'm still living in the first house I and my husband bought in 76. Apart from child benefit I have never taken another penny from the state and I only took that because I was a stay at home parent while my husband was away serving in the Royal Navy and wanted to make sure that my NI was paid so I would be entitled to an pension.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Which, of course, demonstrates that this country is not full of rich pensioners. There are still many who are worse off and can't even afford to heat their houses properly.

This ageist nonsense that we are hearing from some on here has got to stop.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

My parents had very reasonable jobs as Dad was in the Royal Navy and Mum worked in the Civil Service for the last 20 years of her working life before she has to retire early because of ill health.

l can assure you they are not well off as they have to budget everything just like our household does.

whether someone is 49 , 68 . 80 or whatever age they are its only a age at the end of the day and it does not make a iota of difference at the end of the day.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I am sure you are right, Den, and the majority of people are certainly not well off in old age.

However, to see some of the posts on here you would think that pensioners were slimy, child eating monsters cashing in at the expense of the younger generation. I think these ageists need to look at how much the old age pension actually is and wonder whether they could live on that.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

George Orwell would have be proud of you. Respinning a discussion based on objective facts into pearl clutching outrage. Bravo ..

The temporary diversion of the relative disparity of the Baby Boomer generation's wealth & advantage was never about the individual. To make it one, as some have tried to so, is disingenuous. Discussions of trends on a macro scale can never be defined by individual case studies.

BTW, I think this diversion away from the topic of Mr Johnson is at an end?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I think a lot of young people feel that the pension, that they don't expect to get, should be high for old people. You don't find any of the parties that younger people support supporting a reduction in the state pension.

What they're angry about is that the government doesn't do anything to address the economic problems of younger people. In fact the Government makes those problems worse but cutting as much as possible from jobseekers allowance for the under-25s, tripling tuition fees and prioritising protecting property values rather than increase the supply.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

That's why Boris is preparing for a no deal Brexit.

They won't be doing EU countries any favours by continuing that stance. Ah, well, at least we will have overcome the backstop stalemate.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

You forgot to add the important part that Johnson told the EU that he will not talk to them unless the backstop is removed:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...scrap-backstop

In fact, the Leavers pulling Johnson's strings are quite brazen about it:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...enario-eu-told

This whole deal spin is just a sham. Those who control the PM just want the ruinous No Deal. Nothing else. In fact the ERG are quite open about it:

Mark Francois says ERG will vote down Withdrawal Agreement even if Boris Johnson gets rid of the backstop

So even if the EU cave in which is unlikely, the ERG would impose their vision of hell on this country.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

In today’s Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...TM_1Imag_CR1_2

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

By what convention can a PM be removed if they refuse to acknowledge losing the confidence of Parliament?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Just what I was wondering..

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Seems fair enough. Mr Speaker and his allies have played fast and loose with convention often enough over the last few months. They should have realised the chickens would come home to roost eventually. When you work in a system that is governed so extensively by convention, then you can’t afford to try to pick and choose the conventions you respect and the ones you’re prepared to bend or break to suit your agenda. There is no written statute that compels Her Majesty’s Prime Minister to resign following a lost no confidence vote; choosing instead to remain PM until after the outcome of a general election may not have the same weight of convention behind it, but then we’ve been led to believe convention is quite flexible, especially when it’s inconvenient.

I think the reality is, there is going to have to be a general election right after Brexit anyway. Bojo’s Commons majority is barely workable as it is and might be expected to vanish well before 2022. With the Brexit Party neutralised and the possibility of some of the pro-EU uber-rebels getting deselected, it’s as good a time as any for him to go all in.

It would appear that’s the plan anyway. His grand tour of the UK followed by NHS spending announcements looks suspiciously like the opening salvo of an election campaign.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Thing is though I'm not sure that's how it works:

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ral-elections/
So there isn't actually a requirement for the PM to resign, as it's a no confidence vote against the whole Government.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

But in this case they're saying even if a 'Government of National Unity' is formed, i.e Parliament has confidence in a different Government, he would refuse to acknowledge that. Until there is a Government the last PM remains but if Parliament says 'Hey, this is the government and this is who leads it' what compels the last PM to go?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Time for the Roundheads to reform and assert Parliamentary democracy. Boris' head on a stake at Traitors gate I should think ;)

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Appointing the PM is the Queen’s job, having taken advice as to who is most likely to command the confidence of the Commons. The PM, plus whoever s/he appoints as a minister, is the government. All the Commons can do is vote to express its confidence on the government. It cannot hire or fire a government.

In fact, the FTPA’s effect here would appear to be to strengthen Boris’ hand in staying in post for 14 days, enduring a second lost confidence vote and then seeing a general election triggered. As long as the election date falls after 31 October, he gets his wish.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

That's covered in the link above I think:

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I think it's a bluff. In the end, I don't think he has the power to ignore Parliament passing confidence in a new Government, otherwise what would stop someone doing that upon losing an election other than moral weight?

The Queen can send in the guards to turf him out if needs be :D

---------- Post added at 11:44 ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 ----------

But again that precedes Parliament passing confidence in someone else. If they've done that how can he hold on?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

And what happens to UK plc amongst all this chaos?? Who the hell is going to invest anything in this shambles of a country run by a Muppet?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

But this is the whole point. It isn’t about who has the power to do what; it is about what has always happened as a result of convention, and sadly the principle of convention has been somewhat undermined recently.

Only the Queen can appoint a Prime Minister and only the Queen can replace one. If Parliament wished to force Boris to resign then it would have to petition the Queen directly and ask her to do it. That would place her directly into a political position. In our constitution that’s about as close to pulling the nuclear trigger as you can get. If the alternative was a general election, following which Boris would resign in the conventional fashion if he lost, then there is absolutely no way the Queen would intervene. She would always follow the path that does not require her intervention.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Because as I read it, it doesn't force the government out directly.

They (and the PM) are allowed to stay during the 14 day window to try and regain the confidence of parliament. They can choose to hand over to someone else to try to form a government if they wish, but it's not required.
The forcing out is if they can't gain confidence, and haven't allowed anyone else to, an election must be called.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

I think the Queen would be brought into irrespective when faced with a PM who refuses to leave despite having a Parliament that has confidence in someone else. That seems like a rubicon crossed if that ever actually happens. I mean what would she do if this were after an election and the existing PM refused to go? She would have to fire them.

The question is how far can you break convention before the Queen does have to enter politics? Because in the end, the buck does stop at her door.

From what we know about Boris Johnson I don't him being the one willing to do it either. I suspect this is a bluff.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

You’re going too far down the road of “what ifs”. It isn’t after an election. Calling an election rather than resigning is unconventional but not illegal and I agree with Ben’s reading of the FTPA; that Act does in my view strengthen the PM’s moral authority to sit through two no confidence motions and then take it to the country rather than simply resigning.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Losing a no-confidence vote and going into an election is fine. No problem.

But there is a part of the FTPA that states another government can be formed in those 14 days without an election. We're talking about a scenario where that has happened, a confidence motion is passed in another grouping not led by Boris Johnson. In this case, they are saying they would ignore it.

In which case how does it even led to an election since the 14-day deadline was circumvented by the confidence motion?

The only confusion I can see here is if anyone is even allowed to try and form a government. Which is Ben's point here:

But I don't see where that is specifically made clear.

If such a motion passes then how can Boris Johnson stay on and if he does how can he then call an election if, as my reading of the act leads me to believe, the 14-day deadline doesn't get reached?

What point of your point I am missing? Are we just disagreeing on if it's possible for another government to be formed because I don't see where that is made clear in the act....

---------- Post added at 12:55 ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 ----------

Looking at the cabinet advice thing: https://publications.parliament.uk/p.../1813/1813.pdf

Suggests to me that another government could be formed and the cabinet office views it as the responsibility being on the PM to resign to avoid brining the Queen into it.

But if he doesn't then what? The advice there suggests no election and yet no government....

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

So there is a bit more in the Cabinet Manual than the previous page I linked to. This is in Section 2.19:

However it's 'expected' rather than 'required', so I still don't see that it forces a resignation.

The problem here is that this has never been tested in principle or law - currently the rules are all theoretical. By the time they're tested, it may be too late for the No Deal avoidance people are hoping these achieves.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Yup, but then we also don't have an election either way because the confidence motion was passed.

There is this massive loophole in the whole process where the election has been avoided, FTPA has done it's job, but the incumbent doesn't resign.

EDIT; Actually reading the flowchart there suggests the 14-day timer continues while they await the confidence motion. So yeah Boris can wait it out and refuse to resign.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

That would only happen if the government got a confidence vote after the no confidence one.

Otherwise without a confidence vote, the election must be called. But then the date is set by the outgoing government.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Yeah, I thought the FTPA could be stopped simply by passing a confidence motion in someone else whilst in opposition. Reading the flowchart the words 'Parliament has Confidence in HMG' makes more sense. :D

I kind of want to see this all play out really. Be fun to see what actually happens in those 14 days.

Also, we probably need to legislate what happens if a PM refuses to resign to protect the Monarchy in future.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Convention only applies when it's something the Liberals and the Left agree with. Eg Honouring a referendum vote.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Protect the Monarchy from what exactly?

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Hey, we could end like Belgium who didn't have a government for 535 days after their General Election in 2010 - https://brussels-express.eu/fun-fact...ut-government/

If Boris refused to go, I could see the Queen passing the buck to the Privy Council to sort things. There are some right characters in there - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._Privy_Council

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

No deal is not 'ruinous' and Parliament won't approve a deal containing a backstop.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Also, there are plenty of Labour backbenchers who voted against the WA three times and are now waking up to the fact that all they may have achieved is to bring about the default alternative outcome, namely No Deal. If any kind of revised WA is put before the Commons, don’t be surprised to see it carried if not by Labour votes, but by a lot of Labour abstentions.

The ERG won’t be able to prevent a deal - if one is forthcoming of course.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

Some great measured and informative posts in this thread recently in particular from BenMcr, Chris and Damien. Thanks, guys.

Re: [Update 2] PM Boris forms a government
 

No 10 refuses to rule out election shortly after 31 October Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...october-brexit

Pretty inevitable l would say.