Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

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Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35965395)

Then read Yanis Varoufakis. A first hand report.

If the guy you mention has said something relevant to the discussion then please quote and cite him by all means. Just mentioning someone's name doesn't progress the debate, it just comes across as lazy.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35965399)

As you seem interested in what Varoufakis has said (and as if you didn't know), just Google the term "Varoufakis on Brexit and Democracy". I'm surprised you haven't done this. Talk about lazy.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35965401)

As you seem interested in what Varoufakis has said (and as if you didn't know), just Google the term "Varoufakis on Brexit and Democracy". I'm surprised you haven't done this. Talk about lazy.

Just read Vince Clarke. He tackles all those points exceedingly well.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35965401)

As you seem interested in what Varoufakis has said (and as if you didn't know), just Google the term "Varoufakis on Brexit and Democracy". I'm surprised you haven't done this. Talk about lazy.

You should always give a link to a paywall.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Plenty of no paywall sites that properly report Varoufakis’ wise words.

---------- Post added at 09:59 ---------- Previous post was at 08:24 ----------

The Grauniad site was the source of my Varoufakis snippet earlier.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...at-theresa-may

There's another take by Varoufakis on democracy at https://www.project-syndicate.org/co...ufakis-2018-09

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35965386)

"Sovereignty trumps economics" - easy to say if you’re comfortably off. Not so easy if you are one of those negatively affected.

What, you mean one of those people who can't get a job at a decent rate of pay because of the immigrants arriving and driving down wages at the lower end?

There are advantages as well as disadvantages to leaving the EU, but more positives than negatives.

The problem is, too many people are concentrating on the negatives, and that includes the economic forecasters.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35965424)

What, you mean one of those people who can't get a job at a decent rate of pay because of the immigrants arriving and driving down wages at the lower end?

There are advantages as well as disadvantages to leaving the EU, but more positives than negatives.

The problem is, too many people are concentrating on the negatives, and that includes the economic forecasters.

Sounds a bit like "Project Fear" to me...

Actually, what research has found is

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...ive-down-wages

Quote:

Boris Johnson got caught out yesterday when he was forced to admit he hadn’t actually read a Bank of England study he used in an attack on the EU.

The former Mayor of London and Vote Leave campaigner was sparring with ex-SNP leader Alex Salmond in an online Brexit debate organised by the Daily Telegraph and the Huffington post.

Mr Johnson claimed that people on low incomes would see their wages rise if Britain leaves the EU, citing the Bank of England as a source.

He said: “It was a Bank of England study which showed that for every 10 per cent increase in immigration, there was a 2 per cent reduction in wages.”

“Have you actually read it?” Mr Salmond asked. Mr Johnson was forced to admit: “I have not read that study.”...

Quote:

As well as looking at average wages across the economy as a whole, the analysts divided jobs into different sectors.

A street cleaner works in front of the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K. on Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015. A worsening global outlook will damp U.K. growth and persuade the Bank of England to keep its key rate at a record low until the third quarter, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images
They found that native wages are likely to fall the most as a result of immigration in the area of “semi/unskilled services”.

The study says: “A 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants working in semi/unskilled services — that is, in care homes, bars, shops, restaurants, cleaning, for example — leads to a 1.88 per cent reduction in pay.”

That’s close to the 2 per cent quoted by Boris Johnson, and if he had talked about a “reduction in wages for the low-skilled” rather than just “a reduction in wages” in general, he would have been right.

(Note that the “10 percentage point rise” scenario the Bank uses is much bigger than the “10 per cent rise” mentioned by both men. A 10 per cent rise in the EU-born population of the UK is 300,000. A 10 percentage point rise is about 9 million.)

There are other studies in this area that have come up with similar results. Most find that the effect of even a large increase of immigration on overall wages is extremely small, whether positive or negative.

This 2008 paper from UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration found a slight positive effect on overall wages, but said immigration depressed wages for the very low-paid.

So there is an adverse effect on the very low-paid, but only a small one - around 1/30th of 1.8% (according to the figures quoted).

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35965414)

What you are not relating is that Varoufakis is in favour of remaining closely tied with the EU and is in favour of a Corbyn Government.

From your link:

Quote:

We all have a duty to spell out our proposals precisely. In the interest of revitalizing democracy and ending the toxicity of the current Brexit process, DiEM25 and I will be backing the UK’s inclusion in the single market and a customs union with the EU for a renewable five-year period. During that period, implementing the Labour Party’s sensible manifesto would mitigate the damage inflicted on the peoples of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland by the financialized casino capitalism of successive Tory and New Labour governments.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35965424)

What, you mean one of those people who can't get a job at a decent rate of pay because of the immigrants arriving and driving down wages at the lower end?

It's true that the lowest wage earners see a suppression in wages but the higher wage earners have seen an increase;

Quote:

Given the 6.7 percentage point increase in the EU-born working age population
ratio between 1993 and 2017 the implied total effect on UK-born nominal wages
of EU immigration is of the order of a 5.2 per cent reduction to the 5th percentile
a 4.9 per cent reduction at the 10th percentile, a 1.6 per cent reduction to the
25th percentile, a 1.6 per cent increase at the median, a 2.2 per cent increase
at the 75th percentile and a 4.4 and 3.1 per cent increase at the 90th and 95th
percentiles respectively. As previously stated this type exercise should be
interpreted with caution as the model only estimates the short-run response to
migration. Economic theory, and evidence, suggests that any short-run impact
is likely to dissipate overtime.

However, the very next section says;

Quote:

Again, it is useful to place these estimates in context. Over this whole period
(1993-2017), hourly real wages for UK-born workers increased by 55 per cent
and 46 per cent at the 5th and 10th percentile respectively, 37 per cent at the
25th percentile, 34 per cent at the median, 33 per cent at the 75th and 32 per
cent at the 90th percentiles and finally 39 per cent at the 95th percentile. These
estimates therefore suggest that EU immigration had a relatively small impact
on overall wage growth.

So the effects are small at best.

Quote from the Governments own study here - https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Interesting data point:

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/sta...68933904867329

Quote:

The average adult migrant from the European Economic Area yielded £2,370 more for the Treasury in 2017 than the average British-born adult did

Of course the migration numbers have always been dominated by the non-EU net migration. This, unfortunately, did not fit the "EU Migrants are the cause of my GP appointments being delayed, etc." narrative peddled by the Liars.

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2018/10/4.png

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35965431)

What you are not relating is that Varoufakis is in favour of remaining closely tied with the EU and is in favour of a Corbyn Government.

From your link:

What you have chosen to ignore is that Varoufakis and I agree on the non-democratic behaviour of the EU. You should debate that with me.

That I favour Leave and Varu favours Remain is a difference between us.

We do coincide in one respect - as I have said before. If we remain, we must play for reform, my picador sticks.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35965430)

Sounds a bit like "Project Fear" to me...

Actually, what research has found is

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...ive-down-wages So there is an adverse effect on the very low-paid, but only a small one - around 1/30th of 1.8% (according to the figures quoted).

1.9% drop in wages if you are at the bottom is a big hit. I don’t see how what you have posted in any way negates the point OB was making.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35965476)

1.9% drop in wages if you are at the bottom is a big hit. I don’t see how what you have posted in any way negates the point OB was making.

Where are you getting the 1.9% from? I thought Ian said 1/30th of 1.8%. :confused:

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35965476)

1.9% drop in wages if you are at the bottom is a big hit. I don’t see how what you have posted in any way negates the point OB was making.

1/30 of 1.8% or even 1.9% is a very tiny amount.

Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35965437)

Few on this forum are up for taking lessons in democracy from an avowed Corbyn-supporter like Varoufakis.

---------- Post added at 09:09 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 35965478)

1/30 of 1.8% or even 1.9% is a very tiny amount.

It's bizarre isn't it? Some are happy to see the country suffer economically overall by several per cent yet are suddenly concerned by one group suffering a salary decline of 0.06%. Tackle that by raising the income tax threshold by a fraction of a per cent and not be penalising the entire country!