Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Generally they’re seen as acceptable to those whose views are confirmed by them, and manipulative by those who don’t like it when the polls contradict them. ;)

In fact, the statistical process underpinning opinion polls is very robust and their results are always delivered with caveats. It’s those who then take the results and use them for campaigning that add the veneer of either acceptability or manipulation.

For starters, there is always a margin of error. On a properly weighted sample of 1,000 this is typically +/- 3 percentage points, which from the outset should show very clearly that no poll can accurately forecast an outcome that is determined by a gap smaller than that. The Brexit referendum result was well within the polling margin of error.

Secondly, there’s the issue of properly weighting the sample. You can’t get an accurate result from interviewing the first 1,000 people you meet on the high street on a Saturday morning.* You have to have a sample that reflects the demographics of the electorate. So you have to know age/social background of your respondents. You also have to know something about their voting record on the issue at hand. That’s easier for a general election poll but next to impossible for a one-off vote like Brexit.

Again, polling experts like Prof John Curtice at Strathclyde University, who often pops up on the BBC when major voting events are afoot, are always candid about these issues. Whether they make it into the popular consciousness is another matter.

* This, incidentally, is why the “they never asked me, so they can’t be accurate in any way” objection is nonsense. You may feel like a unique individual, but at the population level you really are just a series of fairly predictable responses to major issues. :D

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

This generation isn’t worthy to lick her boots.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1649850403

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I don't think any generation should aspire to be subservient enough to want to link anyone's boots!

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Pretty sure Dorries would do it if it was a challenge on a reality TV programme…

That’s a thought - Nadine could be our next PM, if Johnson resigns (and his machinations have made sure Sunak won’t be).

Go Nads!!!

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I was keeping an open mind because I didn’t know all the facts. I knew about this one, but didn’t consider it a breach of the rules, particularly when Starmer was not fined for having a beer with colleagues on his break. I say again, how is this any different? Is a cake more of a Covid risk than a beer?

The 10minutes has been widely quoted, but it has been clarified now that it was actually 9 minutes. Not that it makes much difference, but I like to keep up. :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 13:51 ---------- Previous post was at 13:47 ----------

Yes, if only Boris didn’t see that cake. But wait….would that really have meant those families could have visited their relatives?

It is a ridiculous argument.

---------- Post added at 13:54 ---------- Previous post was at 13:51 ----------

So what was the difference between what Kier did and what Boris did? The only difference I can make out is that one was a beer and the other a cake. You don’t need to answer. I know that you cannot. You just want to get Boris out of office, and that’s all that matters to you.

Well, he’s going nowhere. Sorry to disappoint.

---------- Post added at 13:56 ---------- Previous post was at 13:54 ----------

They weren’t sorry because they were not aware they did anything wrong until all this erupted.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I know you are only repeating the CCHQ party line, but repeating that argument (cake) only makes you look as shallow & callous as they are…

It’s irrelevant whether there was cake - it’s relevant that they repeatedly broke the rules and laws that they repeatedly insisted that everyone should followed, then denied/lied that they had ever done so…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1649859969

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Just for the sake of transparency, are you actually engaging with a discussion here or are you simply feeding approved CCHQ “lines to take” into the thread?

Because I’m increasingly under the impression that I’m just talking to a press release and it’s getting a bit tedious.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

If it was Boris's boots I'm sure she would be on the case. She might face some tough competition though.

---------- Post added at 16:11 ---------- Previous post was at 16:07 ----------

The only rational answer is that Old Boy is on a Forum wind-up.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Deliberately avoiding that difficult question - what was the difference between what Boris did and what Kier did? It was essentially the cake wot did it. Somehow, that makes it a party.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

The difference is that the evidence the Police gathered showed that one broke the rules, and the other didn't.

You seem to have difficulty accepting the fact that the Police believe the evidence shows the rules were broken - wonder why?

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

H’mm. Maybe that’s because you are ignoring the elephant in the room.

Cake/beer. His colleagues definitely should have stuck with the beer.

Re: All those No.10 lockdown parties
 

I like the line that they didn't know what they were doing was against the rules. Boris Johnson was educated at Eton and Oxford, while Rishi Sunak was educated at Winchester, Oxford and Stanford. If they didn't understand the rules in place at the time, what hope did people who went to their local comprehensive and left at 16?

At the very least, you would think shrewd political operators would never put themselves in a position where there was even the possibility of looking like you did something wrong, even if it is within the rules