Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060385)

My dear chap, I am not suggesting that any of these changes I have been going on about will happen in the next few months! How much of the contractual stuff do you see that deals with 2035, or even 2025?

5G broadcast certainly won’t be ready to replace DTT for some good few years - well beyond your modus operandi.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:30 ----------



You have not taken account of the fact that an increase in OTT viewing will rob the TV channels of their audience, thus reducing advertising revenue. Your premise is that viewer habits will not shift in a major way in the future, which is a pretty big assumption, given the way younger people watch TV. Those younger people are growing older, and there is no sign yet that they are changing their OTT viewing habits. Then there is the newer generation starting to come through, who are even more attracted to OTT viewing.

Add to that the declining quality of content on the traditional TV channels, and you are looking at a bleak future for them. I believe that the direct to consumer approach increasingly adopted by the various studios (to wit, the Disney content, which will all now move exclusively to Disney+) will be the final nail in the coffin.

Despite what some people think on this forum, the traditional channels will not carry on broadcasting once a certain audience threshold can no longer be reached. The BBC saved a lot of money when it transferred BBC3 to online only, and therefore OTT-only distribution will become much more attractive. This will be paid for by subscription and/or advertising.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060395)

Nearly spat my coffee out at that line.

The usual helping of dubious opinion presented as fact, with no economic grounding, misrepresenting the BBC 3 situation.

Pray, tell, OB what is this audience threshold for a linear channel?

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060395)

Nearly spat my coffee out at that line.

The usual helping of dubious opinion presented as fact, with no economic grounding, misrepresenting the BBC 3 situation.

Pray, tell, OB what is this audience threshold for a linear channel?

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36060390)

Looks a lot like moving goalposts again to me.

https://youtu.be/lz9HDvg_mp0

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060400)

Maybe something you should consider, jfman, since you claim DTT could survive with a handful of viewers. Let’s put your skills as an economist to good use.

I don’t think you saw any goalposts in the first place, Grim.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060385)

My dear chap, I am not suggesting that any of these changes I have been going on about will happen in the next few months! How much of the contractual stuff do you see that deals with 2035, or even 2025?

5G broadcast certainly won’t be ready to replace DTT for some good few years - well beyond your modus operandi.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:30 ----------



You have not taken account of the fact that an increase in OTT viewing will rob the TV channels of their audience, thus reducing advertising revenue. Your premise is that viewer habits will not shift in a major way in the future, which is a pretty big assumption, given the way younger people watch TV. Those younger people are growing older, and there is no sign yet that they are changing their OTT viewing habits. Then there is the newer generation starting to come through, who are even more attracted to OTT viewing.

Add to that the declining quality of content on the traditional TV channels, and you are looking at a bleak future for them. I believe that the direct to consumer approach increasingly adopted by the various studios (to wit, the Disney content, which will all now move exclusively to Disney+) will be the final nail in the coffin.

Despite what some people think on this forum, the traditional channels will not carry on broadcasting once a certain audience threshold can no longer be reached. The BBC saved a lot of money when it transferred BBC3 to online only, and therefore OTT-only distribution will become much more attractive. This will be paid for by subscription and/or advertising.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060402)

Can you source where I’ve said this? I’m fairly agnostic towards the technology as I’m not pushing an agenda in the sense that you are. So it doesn’t sound like the kind of thing I’d say.

I know you’ve persistently struggled to address the actual points I’ve made so it suits you to misrepresent them. Especially if your next goalpost shift is to pretend you didn’t mean scheduled, linear television at all and you meant DTT.

Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k (Post 36060404)

My dear chap at lot more than you will ever know about contracts i told you already that Channel 4 have a plan for at least 20 years on traditional broadcast platforms which part of that do you not understand?
The way people watch tv is certainly changing no-one has ever disputed that but traditional broadcast tv is not going anywhere, did you know that in 2017 there was a proposal for Channel 6 from Comcast? Neither did i until i looked through old documents today as we all know Comcast went on to buy SKY last year instead.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060410)

So if you are now denying that you ever suggested the TV channels could survive with very little funding? Who’s really changing the goalposts here?

The reason I mentioned DTT channels is simply that I think the pay TV channels will go first.

I have always addressed your points, jfman, the problem is you are not listening.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060410)

So if you are now denying that you ever suggested the TV channels could survive with very little funding? Who’s really changing the goalposts here?

The reason I mentioned DTT channels is simply that I think the pay TV channels will go first.

I have always addressed your points, jfman, the problem is you are not listening.

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But, Legendkiller, as your very example shows, plans change. And where do you think Comcast is going now? OTT, of course. You will see this play out over time.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060410)

But, Legendkiller, as your very example shows, plans change. And where do you think Comcast is going now? OTT, of course. You will see this play out over time.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060414)

As ever you fail to demonstrate why someone like Comcast cannot, and would not , do both. They aren’t ideological in the way you are. Maintaining linear channels is cheap for content owners. Amazon and Netflix are developing linear offerings in Germany and France.

It’s also an easy way to advertise or showcase your content.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060412)

So I haven’t claimed that DTT channels can exist on very little funding as you suggested a few posts ago.

Thanks for clarifying, OB.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36060412)

So I haven’t claimed that DTT channels can exist on very little funding as you suggested a few posts ago.

Thanks for clarifying, OB.

You haven’t addressed any points,

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060416)

Yes, you did! DTT channels are linear channels, which you referred to in your very next post!

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060416)

Did you ever take any notice at all of the savings the Beeb made when it closed BBC3 as a linear channel? No, you didn’t.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36060416)

Yes, you did! DTT channels are linear channels, which you referred to in your very next post![COLOR="Silver"]

Yes, I have! God, you can tell it’s pantomime season!:p:

Originally Posted by Legendkiller2k (Post 36060435)

So OB isn't prepared to put his money where his mouth is then and agree to my little wager i made him.