Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson to look again at Fracking in the UK to solve energy crisis.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...supply-crisis/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If we can use this as an excuse to overhaul our current energy situation……good.

Net Zero is an expensive luxury and fallacy. We have, as a nation, reserves of Gas, Coal and Oil………as well as Wind……we also don’t exploit tidal enough. The one renewable that’s is consistent and predictable.

We could, with the right investment be energy independent, and we should be.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

As he well should be. Gas is going to be in our domestic energy mix for well over a decade, possibly two. It was always absurd to be bowing to the spittle-flecked demands of crusties who would never be happy with anything short of a return to the Iron Age; in declining to exploit our own natural resources, all we have done is make ourselves dependent on others. We still need the gas, we might as well control where we get it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Fitch downgrades Russian credit rating to imminent default.

“The ‘C’ rating reflects Fitch’s view that a sovereign default is imminent,” the credit agency said in a statement. - Kyiv Independent

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Pretty sure that since it’s been widely publicised that arms supplies are coming from Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, U.K., and the United States, that fact will not have escaped the FSB’s attention, and with the widely-reported fact that the EU has earmarked €450 million for lethal arms, which include air-defense systems, anti-tank weapons, ammunition to Ukraine, that horse may have already bolted…

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine...yiv/a-60772390

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/w...ne-russia.html

The planes idea is unlikely to fly, anyway…
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1646784468

https://twitter.com/jacquiheinrich/s...972800527?s=21

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Just been claimed on TV that some adult children in Ukraine have telephoned their parents in Russia to tell them what's going on and they don't believe them!

They must be so brainwashed that they believe Russian propaganda over their own offspring!!!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's a vote loser, and that's what matters with Boris, so it won't happen. All very well fracking in the massive open spaces of the US, but it doesn't work on a crowded island. Then of course there's the environment which is still a bigger threat to everyone on the planet than even the current crisis. Time to turn the thermostat down and put a jumper on.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Or maybe someone is listening in on the calls:shocked:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I thought similar when they were interviewing Russians in Moscow on the BBC yesterday. No way anyone they interview is going to say 'I don't believe Putin'

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

This will be quietly dropped as voters like cheaper petrol but don't like fracking happening in their back yard.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No it won't, Nigel is on the case.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

We just had an update from our management at work on the situation. Local staff in Ukraine have all been evacuated to neighbouring countries. The feedback from Russia based staff is that they are not happy in the slightest with Russias' invasion of Ukraine (hooray for end to end encryption of calls allowing them to speak honestly!)

The company I work for sells products which are dual use technologies and they have been blocked form day one but now all products are blocked from shipment as a policy and also because Russian customers have very few ways to pay for these goods. There's also an information embargo so no support for existing products. Russia are essentially persona non grata

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

He's a bit persona non-grata at the moment, so I wouldn't worry too much about him.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That's what the EU supporters thought ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

And of course unless you're doing fracking as a state activity and restricting sales to the UK only, if it's done commercially there is no guarantee that it'll actually reduce retail prices anyway.

That's what the USA is finding at the moment - domestic oil companies are getting market value for what they're producing and are sending it out of the USA as part of that commercial activity, so it's not reducing their domestic market prices.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Xi urges Russian restraint on Ukraine in first sign of split with Putin

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f...ed6143ef31c1e4

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Just been on Sky news, Russia claiming they've found biological laboratories in Ukraine and are 'demanding an explanation from the US'.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Russia can get their answers but they need to discuss, I don’t know,,, um… Novichok , with us first…. ? ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I wonder if Tony Blair believes them . . .

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think we all predicted this outcome!

Ukraine war: Briton who volunteered to join fight against Russia turned down and told he would be 'a liability'

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Is that their latest reason?

The previous ones I remember are:-

Russia could not feel "safe, develop and exist" because of what was claimed to be a constant threat from modern Ukraine
Genocide of Russian speakers
Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood
De-Nazification
Peace-keeping mission
Dirty Nukes

I may have missed a few…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Jeremy Vine interviewed two Russians settled in the UK at the beginning of the week on his lunchtime show on Radio 2. Both said the same. Many Russians in Russia have completely swallowed Putin's propaganda line and simply won't believe even members of their own family who can see what's really going on. Such are the family tensions in some instances that they have all agreed not to talk about it, though I don't know how sustainable that's going to be as sanctions really start to bite ordinary Russians.

It's always heartening to hear of Russians who *do* understand they're being lied to. I guess it's unsurprising in this case as these are the ones who routinely work with people based in other countries, and they're having conversations grounded in facts, figures and business strategy, rather than occasional family chat. In the long term, the mismatch between what their government tells them the world is like, and what their work colleagues are really like, must be impossible to ignore.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Still can't be the pure 'we know we're lying, you know we're lying' on this one.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b2031972.html

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Now he's bombed a hospital, and children are buried.


Can we seriously hold back and not defend Ukraine?



https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-says-12561747

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If we do it could be your/mine/everyone's family under the rubble.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Power has now been cut to the Chernovyl power plant, sparking fears of nuclear contamination:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...874.html%3famp

---------- Post added at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ----------

Fears that Putin may now resort to using chemical weapons:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...3omdoLxq8sJfrY

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

It's heart-wrenching seeing news like this.

The West has no easy choices.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Unless you want become a nuclear burn shadow on what’s left of your kitchen wall, all we can do is wait until Ukraine surrender and/or a negotiated peace is brokered.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yeah, the team in Russia have a very international outlook which probably helps here. Everyone is getting regular communications from the top brass in our company on our position. For example, our CEO posted this;

Our IT department sets up our laptop lock screens remotely for whatever campaign is going on. For the last few days, it's been a big old Ukraine flag saying we are supporting humanitarian relief in Ukraine. Hopefully the Russian team have been excluded from this rollout as this could be fun if they open their laptop in public!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes, we can, unless NATO is attacked, we stay out of direct conflict.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

We can, and we must.

Putin has screwed himself and he knows it. There is now a risk to him personally; it may be small right now but the longer this goes on, the worse it will get for him. Even if he can disguise the military disaster, the results of the sanctions are already impossible to ignore and will only get worse.

His only salvation now is to rally his people to the flag, and the only real chance he has to do that is to frame this as Russia in grave peril from the evil West. He really needs Nato to get stuck in and escalate things so that this narrative has a ring of truth to it. From here on in, he will try to draw us into the conflict with ever more outrageous acts. He will bomb schools, he will bomb hospitals and he won’t rule out chemical weapons either.

The only way out of this is for Putin himself to be taken out of the picture, the only people who can do that are Russian, and the only way they are likely to do it is if they feel the pain of economic ruin. Sanctions will work. We must stick to them and give them time.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

We didn’t have a problem getting involved when Iraq invaded Kuwait ? Kuwait wasn’t at the time nor currently is a member of NATO (it did however sign a transit agreement in 2016) the atrocities currently being committed far outweigh the level of iraqs oppression.

Here’s the crux those advocating no direct military involvement are scared/afraid, and you know what ? That’s fine. Everyone should be in a degree of fear of the current situation.


Sooner or later we will imho be involved in a direct military confrontation with Russia. Intelligence briefings already appear to indicate that he won’t stop at Ukraine

---------- Post added at 19:30 ---------- Previous post was at 19:22 ----------

And how many innocent lives are should we prepared to lose whilst we give these sanctions time to kick in ?

As always it’s easy to hold either this or the opposing view whilst we debate it from our ivory keyboards.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You've got an ivory keyboard, jealous and revolted in equal measure

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Plivory doesn’t have quite the same ring my dear chap ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Tricky, but hopefully we're doing more behind the scenes than we're making public. The danger is Putin realising he's made a mistake, becoming desperate, and feeling he has nothing to lose. He's doomed but it might take a few years and countless lives/misery worldwide.

If we hadn't invented nuclear weapons it would be so much more straightforward. They may have kept the peace for the last 75 years but now they are preventing us from doing so.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Iraq didn’t have the capability to annihilate the US & Europe and most of the world. Neither did Serbia, or Vietnam, or Korea, or Argentina, or Afghanistan. Do you see the commonality between all those non-nuclear nations that we have engaged with militarily?

I think the end of the world is quite a healthy thing to be afraid of, and avoid.

Maybe, not at Ukraine but not another NATO member

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Great, so you admit you’re scared and NATO are scared.

But we will stop being scared enough to intervene should putin attack a NATO member? But until then he can have Switzerland, Moldova etc should he wish ?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well not scared as such but certainly a need to be very careful and wary of any action.

Do you suggest that NATO attack Russia now?

Are willing to risk, from your ivory keyboard nuclear Armageddon?

He won’t for the very reason we haven’t attacked Russia.

He’s not interested in Switzerland, to get to Moldova he’d have to get through Ukraine, I don’t think he will and I don’t think he’s that bothered about Moldova either.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I'm sure if he's successful in Ukraine, Vlad'll have one eye on Transnistria and then it'll be the same old 'defending the Russians' excuse and we'll be waving bye-bye to Moldova.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I don't think we should engage yet but we should continue to try to exert maximum damage to Russia for the actions taken so far such as these sanctions and arming Ukraine so they can increase the military cost it takes. They need to be weakened so they can't invade elsewhere.

But we need to be more realistic at where we do draw the line for NATO to get involved. I also think Chris is right that he is trying to provoke NATO into action but in all likelihood, if Putin has decided he wants that war, he'll find a pretext to fight it.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Problem with that approach is that blackmailers* never just blackmail once - they usually come back for more once they’ve found it works…

He’s already installed a puppet regime in Belarus, he’s trying to do the same in Ukraine - don’t believe what people say, believe what they do (in this case, taking back the ex-Sov countries, one by one).

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...es-permanently *And that’s all this is - nuclear blackmail.

---------- Post added at 20:25 ---------- Previous post was at 20:15 ----------

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...fence-12561830

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Are you willing to call his bluff? Do you want to play politics or poker?

It’s no secret what his objectives are. He wants to rebuild a Russian empire. Not a Soviet Union. He sees himself more as a Czar.

He will try to take any non-NATO country within his sphere of influence. All NATO can do is prepare and arm these nations and continue sanctions.

NATO is defensive, as you well know having served, they will not attack unless attacked.

Whatever happens in the future, we are in a new Cold War for the foreseeable.

Probably, Only revolutionary action in Russia or any of the puppet states it acquires will change anything.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Iraq doesnt [and didnt] have the one of the largest armed forces in the world, and enough nuclear weapons to vaporize the planet.
You dont pick a fight with anyone that big & potentially deadly unless you absolutely need to, and atm, we absolutely dont need to.

Mine is black plastic, and I'd very much like to stay alive and continue using it. :cool:

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Are you willing to let him take one country after another - do you want to stand up to aggression or just let him keep on invading other countries? It’s nuanced, not just binary.

Luckily, neither of us have the responsibility, ability, or the full knowledge to make those decisions - we are just a couple of randos on a forum stating opinions; no one (in any position of responsibility) cares what we think or propose.

It’s fine and healthy that we can have diverse opinions in this (and other) matters - the reason I feel the way I do is that I saw at first hand what Putin and his ilk did during the Cold War, stifling the difference of opinions and values we are allowed, and I see it happening again in Russia, Belarus, and some other ex-Sov Republics, and know that is what he wants for everyone…

I also understand why people are concerned with a possible delivery of "Instant Sunshine" - only a fool wouldn’t be; we lived with that possibility for nearly 40 years, but somehow we survived.

I’m glad I don’t have to be trying to balance deterring Putin without tipping him over…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

You make it sound like there’s a calculation to be made. Perhaps you’d like to share how you’d make that call yourself?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Absolutely it’s nuanced, absolutely.

As you served, you know better than anyone that NATO cannot, and will not attack. So that particular angle is mute.

The West will support any nation at risk with arms, equipment and training but they will not directly attack Russia, or Russian puppet states.

It’s Cold War 2.0

I’m thankful for the privilege to be able to be able to debate this on my secure comfortable couch in the U.K., and it’s horrible what’s happening in Ukraine but from a totally selfish but logical position this conflict needs to stay conventional and not nuclear and I think everyone, when they think about it, will agree with that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.ft.com/content/81630924-...d-006a90972bb0

---------- Post added at 22:19 ---------- Previous post was at 22:05 ----------

Is NATO's position absolutely that set in stone? Could they look at the situation and think that the humanitarian issues are such that they will intervene?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Paul answered before you questioned ;)


I also learnt in my 'early' years, that it can be really really stupid to have a fight against somebody with nothing to lose . . . which, with all the sanctions and things, is getting close to what Putin has . .

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If it helps, I can re-phrase it "How difficult or how easy would it be constitutionally for NATO to get involved in direct action in Ukraine? Impossible? Would it have to jump through hoops? Take a vote?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes, of course it is, we’re talking global Armageddon. Several thousand dead Ukrainians do not warrant several billion dead globally.

That’s the harsh reality

---------- Post added at 22:45 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------

I don’t the answer, but NATO is defensive not aggressive.

Given the potential, why would you risk attacking anyway?

We have a nuclear “deterrent” not a nuclear “aggressor” , (or arm twister) it is there to prevent an attack not to be used for an attack.

Ukraine are on their own, in regards to manpower.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No idea mate, but I can imagine there wouldn't be a 100% vote on whether NATO continues to watch or goes in fighting, same as on here ;)


edit: as has been said before, Putin seems to be trying to pull NATO into it . . . and that Ukraine president chap is screaming for it too IMO.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That’s Paul’s view, not necessarily NATO’s… ;)

I think the crunch point will come if Putin tries to claim the Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad* (the bit of Russia on the Baltic between Poland and Lithuania) - he has mentioned this aspiration previously, and if it happened, it would cut off Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia (by land travel) from the rest of Europe.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03...alki-corridor/

The author of this recent article makes an interesting point about the Ukraine invasion, and why we shouldn’t take it for granted that this is the end-game.

* home to lots of Russian combat forces, including the Russian Baltic Fleet, advanced air defenses, and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Good point, maybe the correct answer to his question would then have to be "why don't you ask NATO?" ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Pretty sure they wouldn’t tell us (for OpSec reasons..) ;)

Main point is, look for strategy, not tactics - why this, now, and what are the next moves…

Can we be intimidated into inaction, and let the ex-Sov NATO countries be subsumed one at a time, until the barbarians are at the gate?

This is why NATO was formed - to prevent the westward spread of an ideology that was anathema to our way of living…

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I find myself wondering . . quite a ridiculous notion truth be told . . what would happen if China, taking advantage of the troubled Russian economy and state of the nation, suddenly decided to 'steal' a stretch of land to their North East . . . the Vladivostok area. :D

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

US claims 6000 Russian soldiers killed since start of invasion and 15000-20000 injured

Ukraine claims 12000 Russians killed

Twitter has opened a service bypassing Russias attempts to block it, interesting messages being sent back from the front about looting

I'm not convinced we would get involved if a NATO country is attacked, I don't yhink the American public would support military action in aid of a country they've never heard of.

Thermobaric weapons are banned by by the Geneva Convention but not international law


This is true, he's not overly fussed by the Stan countries that used to be part of the old union

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That would be on the table in any peace negotiation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Perhaps you could answer the question asked ? As opposed to a very poor attempt at swerving.

---------- Post added at 08:19 ---------- Previous post was at 08:16 ----------

Ah, I see, so it’s only about picking battles we can win rather than defending what we (the western world) believe in

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well you’d know what swerving looks like, wouldn’t you. Have you cooked up an answer to this yet:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...9#post36113969

Meantime, no, I’m not answering you because you don’t ask questions or discuss in good faith - my response was a (futile) attempt to get you to debate rather than just be an angry ranty contrarian. Sadly to no avail.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Nothing angry at all about my response at all but that’s generally your take when you’re put in a position that your uncomfortable with answering.

Consider this in good faith, how many more innocent civilians have to die before your conscience turns to accept that we need to intervene militarily? How many more innocent civilians have to be shelled whilst trying to evacuate ? How many more hospitals have to be bombed? How much deadlier does the weaponry used have to be?

There’s no evidence whatsoever to suggest that putin will stop at Ukraine, he and western intelligence reports have stated that this is the beginning.

Do you want to wait until he’s on our doorstep before you decide intervention is required ?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

If we go in and help then there is a good chance you and everyone else will die. There's nothing we can do that we aren't already doing till the point he attacks a NATO country. We've just got to hope sanctions take effects and negotiations come to a conclusion. Not a lot else to add to that.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Are you really asking this?

If a NATO member retaliates against Russia, the World dies in a Nuclear World War III.

Yes, 1000’s of innocent Ukrainian civilians are being hit by Putin, but the second we hit Putin’s forces. World will be at Defcon 1, nuclear war imminent or has already started.

Russia will deploy most of its 6,400 nuclear warheads and many of them will each have a major city in the UK and around the world in their targets. Just like they did during the height of the Cuban missile crisis at the start of the 1960’s.

After Russia fires Nukes at us, in retaliation, we and other NATO members strike back and hit Russia.

600,000,000 would die and millions more during nuclear winter and spikes in radiation levels around the northern hemisphere would last for decades.

Nobody wins this.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think the more likely scenario is they could use tactical nukes in Ukraine and we might have to respond in kind which could escalate to world destruction but probably wouldn't unless we pose a threat to Russia's continued existence, i.e by heading towards Moscow.

I don't think a war between two nuclear powers automatically means you just fire nukes. Likely they will remain held back until it's the last resort.

Obviously don't want to test that though.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well, obviously if you were in charge we'd all be bathing in a thermonuclear sun tan. If you're not wearing Factor 15,000,0000 Piz Buin, you're going to get a tad burnt.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Roman Abramovich has been sanctioned by the Government and his assets - including Chelsea Football Club - have been frozen

Chelsea have been given a special licence to continue with football related activities but the sale effectively bars the sale of the club - The Times.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Don't Russia and Ukraine produce and export a lot of wheat and barley? The reduction in those crops is going to be felt around the world too.
And Putin doesn't have to use nukes in Ukraine as he has the world's biggest dirty bomb in Chernobyl. "Accidentally" blow that up, blame locals but effectively salt the ground and again gain more control over wheat production. (Maybe we should stop building on farm land and grow more wheat/barley?)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

That wouldn’t be peace negotiations, that would be appeasement.

I wonder if it will be insisted that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia leave NATO would also be on the table at any "peace negotiations"?

We never had to use tactical nukes to slow down any Sov invasion through the Fulda Gap because we bankrupted the Soviet Union into submission - it’s no different now, unless we let his blackmail work (by giving up Ukraine first, then the Suwalki Corridor, then Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia).

He won’t stop there, because, why should he? He will have seen his tactics work.

We didn’t let the threat of "Instant Sunshine” stop us in the Cold War, what’s the difference now?

---------- Post added at 09:33 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ----------

Mr Ad-Hominem coming to visit again, I see…

Can’t we have a civilised discussion with differing views without personal attacks, please? (general call, not specific to you).

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BAH! Disband Chelsea, anything else is a slap in the face to the people of Ukraine.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Unless, Ukraine (and by further extension the West) demand nothing but full/total and complete surrender of Russia, then it will be a negotiated peace, and in a negotiation anything can be on the table.

I was just responding to a very stupid point of thinking with a marvellously witty retort.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Chelsea FC is buggered

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Whereas your general approach is to ramp up the pomposity while convincing yourself (but few others) that you somehow occupy the moral high ground in any discussion.

Yes, you are being angry ranty, and it’s leading you to assume that the effectiveness of an intervention may be measured by how big an explosion it makes.

The sanctions regime is unprecedented and it will bring Russia to a halt in time. A military intervention by Nato, however, will not bring Russia down, it will escalate the conflict. The clear risk in your favoured approach is not fewer casualties but more. I’d ask if your conscience can deal with that but it’s abundantly clear to me that you haven’t even thought through those possibilities.

Nato is a defensive alliance, created specifically to defend Nato member states against Russia. The worst thing we could possibly do right now is give Putin what he wants, which is evidence he can show his people that Nato is willing to act with direct military aggression against Russia when it has not attacked a Nato member. There are any number of occasions in the past when the USA and Russia (or the USSR) could have come into direct conflict but the reason why they always have not is that both sides are extremely nuclear armed and the risks of escalation are to the entire world.

Thankfully, you only get to express your supposed moral superiority from your armchair where there’s little chance of precipitating a global catastrophe.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

You can’t negotiate in good faith with outright liars who deny lying - Comical Ali has nothing on these guys.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Special operation.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1646909568

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well in that case, the deaths will continue until Russia wins, and I don't see anything but a prolonged campaign and an eventual Russian victory if a negotiated peace is not reached.

It will cost Russia dearly, but it will not back down.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Indeed.

From what I've read, Ukraine's negotiators have a directly line into Zelenskyy but the Russian negotiators don't have one into Putin. So when the Russians say we want Ukraine to be neutral, the Ukranians go, fine, let's come up with a form of words and the Russians don't have an answer as they're not really negotiating.

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:58 ----------

Is it a given that Russia will be successful? I thought this was a given at first but now I'm less sure.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So that could include Hungary, (as was)East Germany, Czech Republic, etc.?

As part of my training as a Intelligence Analyst (specifically focusing on the USSR and GSFG), we weren’t just taught about Military equipment and structures, we also learned about Russia/Soviet psychology and how they react to external factors and pressures - the way Putin is acting now is a throwback to Hungary and Czechoslovakia; a show of strength, to see how far we can be pushed.

He’s already stated he sees the supply of arms to Ukraine as tantamount to an act of war.

You can’t negotiate in good faith with proven liars - they just see it as weakness; we need to wear Russia down by the tactics we are doing now, but make it clear any attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries, under Article 5. We are already preparing for this, as reported recently in the NY Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/w...ne-russia.html

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 11:02 ----------

Thats where we differ - I believe internal pressure due to sanctions, shortages, civil unrest, and the continuing lack of progress in Ukraine, along with the escalating losses in Russian personnel and material, will lead to a change in approach, perhaps leadership.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

U.K. imposes sanctions on 7 Russian oligarchs, including Abramovich, Sechin & Miller.

Andrey Kostin, the chairman of VTB Bank, Nikolai Tokarev, the president of Transneft, Dmitri Lebedev, the chairman of Bank Rossiya & industrial tycoon Oleg Deripaska, were also sanctioned. - Kyiv Independent

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I can only offer opinions, I'm not forensically following the campaign.

But I don't see how Russia loses. They haven't committed all of their resources. I think it will get a lot nastier if it isn't resolved soon.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Well it looks as though it's ready to kick off doesn't it.

All those NATO troops and equipment being moved into the area . . . one wonders how the Russian media will explain that to the masses :erm:


*cough* American aggressors and their allies threaten Russian borders *cough*

Now it just needs one gung-ho 'God is on our side' American nut job to start the ball rolling :D

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Certainly not Germany. As it's in NATO. I also think any other nation is not on the menu as this stage.

But a corridor through NATO to a estranged Russian province, yes I could see that.

I think he's well aware of that, he won't attack NATO for the very reason NATO won't directly engage with Russia.

Yep, that is where we differ. I believe his grip on Russia is still cast iron. I don't see him going anywhere or being offed by anyone, and if anyone does go after him, they'd better not mess!

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Those two statements contradict each other, unless you think that the Russians currently aren't attacking Ukraine - you're not Lavrov, are you? ;)

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

No, they don't if there's a peace negotiation to be had and NATO are involved in that negotiation.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Can’t see two NATO countries giving up land - let’s agree to differ…

More sanctions against Russia, this time from China.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ns-2022-03-10/

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I can't see Lithuania agreeing. It would trap that country along with Latvia and Estonia behind what's potentially a new iron curtain.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Thats a scary caveat…

Does that mean you think it.might happen later on?

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think, taking and keeping Ukraine, will deplete Russia enough (along with the sancations) that they will take quite a long time time to re-group, possibly decades. So, I think only Ukraine will be taken in this campaign, and that may well be enough for Putin, for his Presidency. It's who comes after him and what ideas they have and in what kind of shape Russia is in, that will be the next concern. Remember Putin is 70, and although 70 is not ancient if it take 10years for Russia to recover he'll be 80 if he makes it........

I think this campaign and annexing Ukraine, will be Putins legacy.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I've heard this rumour, but it is still very much a rumour

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

I think this campaign will be Putin’s legacy. Annexing Ukraine will not be. Even without allowing for the evidence of the past fortnight, the Russian military doesn’t have the capacity to subdue a non-compliant population of 44 million people in a territory the size of Ukraine. Add in the many problems the Russian military clearly has, and the crippling sanctions Russia is under (which will prevent it rearming for years) and it is impossible to see Russia getting much further into the country than it is at present.

The reason Russia is destroying maternity hospitals and working up pretexts for using chemical weapons is because it has realised it cannot win a conventional military campaign in Ukraine. All it has left is a berserker strategy in which it suggests there are no lengths it will not go to in an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Putin hopes thereby to force Ukraine to capitulate.

Given that western military supplies are ramping up and the civilian population (+ foreign legion) is still being mobilised, it is less likely still that Russia can hold Ukraine even if it perpetrates enough outrages to force a surrender.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

BREAKING: Zelensky signs law allowing seizure of Russian property in Ukraine.

It allows Ukraine to confiscate property that belongs to the Russian Federation or its residents without any compensation. The parliament passed it on March 3. - Kyiv Independent.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Might explain the long tables and fear of covid...

When does bombing ever break morale, I can't think of an occasion when it's done anything other than stiffen a populations resolve.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Hiroshima /Nagasaki

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Did you know Japan used biological weapons in WWII? they were even planning to attack the US mainland with the plague

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

So effective it took two, if you were going to be clever it might been better to have gone with the Great Mesopatamian revolt of the early 1920's

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

They changed plans and attacked with Honda and Toyota.

Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
 

Yes they used them on the Chinese in death camps horrifically similar to nazi ones and imo because of guilt over those bombs we don't dwell to much on their existence