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The future for linear TV channels
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Old 19-04-2016, 21:39   #871
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
l would not read much into that as shares go up and down on a regular basis.
I feel netflix shares may go down quite a bit as quite a few will cancel netflix due to their vpn/proxy blocking, prsonally i'm happy with netflix my proxy is blocked but plenty of content on the uk netflix still.
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Old 25-04-2016, 15:32   #872
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

I have concluded that there is clearly never going to be a consensus on this issue and therefore perhaps a quick summary of this thread is in order.

The original proposition was that with changing viewing habits and the increasing number of user friendly video streaming services, the current trend would ultimately lead to the closure of the existing commercial TV companies.

The premise was based on the fact that programmes delivered by way of streaming services were available on demand 24/7, many of them without interruptions from commercials and of course unconstrained by inflexible schedules. So programmes that are an hour long on conventional commercial TV take only 45 minutes of so to watch on SVOD, and telly addicts are able to squeeze in another hour long programme every 4 hours. As the younger generation become adults and settle down into family life, they will expect to be able to choose and watch their shows when they want to and watch them without interruption. This behaviour has already commenced, and it will rub off on older generations with time. Judging by our experience with the advent of the internet, I would say this process will take up to a decade to embrace the vast majority of the population.

Clearly, watching TV by conventional methods will decline with time, and there will come a crunch point beyond which commercial broadcast linear channels will not be able to turn a profit. This has led me to conclude that these channels will start to disappear in the next decade as more streaming services become available.

Although I have said all along that streaming/on demand services will take over, I do concede that the main players in broadcast TV may find ways of keeping their channels on air, but to do so they will need to find other income streams. For example, either individually or collectively, the main terrestrial channels may invest in their own streaming service like Netflix, supported by subscriptions. They will probably come under pressure by the Government to offer an alternative without subscription and funded by advertising for those who cannot afford to, or do not want to pay for their TV.

I have assumed that the cost of running a conventional TV channel, with all the links, scheduling, etc, would lead to these linear broadcast channels closing, but some contributors on this thread have suggested that this may not be as costly as I have assumed. If that is correct, and both streaming services and conventional channels can be run side by side without being financially prohibitive, then this may well save the broadcast channels from a complete wipeout. However, I would not be at all surprised to see a reduction in their number, if nothing else.

My detractors have thrown a number of things at me and very strong views have been expressed that although the amount of streaming will increase, it will not be at the expense of our conventional channels because it will find its own level. It has also been suggested that there are technical problems which prevent video streaming from being available to 100% of the population. That of course, is true, but it is a stretch in my opinion to believe that these problems cannot be resolved in the course of 15-20 years, particularly as those in the industry fully expect video streaming to be the name of the game in the future. So, whilst these problems are acknowledged, we can now only wait and see whether they become sticking points in the expansion of the availability of streaming services.

I have been asked specifically about what kind of choices we will have in my vision of the future, but this is more difficult to assess, because unexpected developments do happen. Looking to the future from here, it would appear that TV will be dominated by global providers like Netflix, Amazon, Comcast, etc and supplemented by national providers such as our terrestrials. Even Sky may go global - it is already making strides in that direction.

One of the more pedantic arguments that have come out of this thread is that it is not correct to describe VOD as being separate from linear because it is possible to stream live programmes. Just for the record, I do accept this completely and I have said from the start that some VOD programming will be live. However, all over the internet, linear TV is assumed to refer to our conventional broadcast TV channels, and this is certainly what I have meant by it throughout.

Some have suggested that there will be a section of the population that will resist on demand viewing and that no Government would preside over a situation in which such a system was forced upon them. That argument simply does not wash. If the provision of conventional channels becomes uneconomic, the Government certainly won't step in, except to ensure a smooth transition. This is what happened when analogue was phased out in favour of digital TV.

It has also been said that our conventional channels could refuse to sell their original programmes to the SVOD providers, denuding them of content. However, this ignores the fact that the broadcast channels are heavily reliant these days on selling their shows in this way in order to increase revenue streams. Many channels of course rely on repeat and bought in material and so would find that they had very little to sell to the big streaming players anyway.

In my view, if the BBC were to move from the licence fee to a subscription based service, this would enhance the move to SVOD. All viewers would then have some money (from the saving they make) to purchase alternative provision if they wish to do so.

There has also been a lot of talk about 'what people want' and the fact that some prefer to switch on the box and channel hop. I don't deny that of course, but if I am right and the ability to make existing conventional linear TV channels pay becomes impossible, then I'm afraid that people will just have to get used to it, as they tend to do with any major change in society and how it works.

This has been a most interesting debate and I really did not expect it to become so heated, but I guess now we can sit back and watch things change - in whatever way they are going to change - in the future.

I, for one, will be thoroughly looking forward in the short term to seeing how Virgin Media's commitment to VOD as a means of providing us with exclusive content in the future unfolds.
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Old 25-04-2016, 17:54   #873
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Has anyone else noticed the great increase in the number of adverts being shown before and during on demand programs? This greatly annoys me because it's now little difference between recording programs. I know it's the way on demand is being funded or partly funded but still annoying.
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Old 25-04-2016, 18:03   #874
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Yes, particularly as you cannot skip them. They really need to offer a subscription or pay per view alternative for those who do not want to sit through commercials and are prepared to pay for the privilege.

If the terrestrials don't do this, they will find that most viewers will end up seeking content from other providers who are more forward looking.
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Old 25-04-2016, 18:43   #875
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Sky claim not to worry about the overnight audiences

https://corporate.sky.com/media-cent...exible_viewing
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Old 25-04-2016, 18:57   #876
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Well he would say that though.
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Old 25-04-2016, 19:01   #877
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
Well he would say that though.
To be fair Den I'd imagine Sky don't worry as much about overnight figures it's not like Sky are dependant on them for ad revenue.

I'm not for one moment suggesting Sky homes don't watch linear , in fact I'm sure I read recently that quite a high percentage of the BBC's live viewing came from Sky homes plus with over 6 million subscribers on the platform subscribing to Sky Sports that's quite a lot watching live.
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Old 25-04-2016, 19:56   #878
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Quote:
Originally Posted by muppetman11 View Post
Sky claim not to worry about the overnight audiences

https://corporate.sky.com/media-cent...exible_viewing
It is gratifying that Sky is at last increasing the amount of original programming, and also that after a slow start, they are now embracing on demand viewing. The benefits for them are now clear to see. Of course it matters not a jot at what time audiences access on demand!
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Old 26-04-2016, 09:53   #879
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I have concluded that there is clearly never going to be a consensus on this issue and therefore perhaps a quick summary of this thread is in order.

The original proposition was that with changing viewing habits and the increasing number of user friendly video streaming services, the current trend would ultimately lead to the closure of the existing commercial TV companies.

The premise was based on the fact that programmes delivered by way of streaming services were available on demand 24/7, many of them without interruptions from commercials and of course unconstrained by inflexible schedules. So programmes that are an hour long on conventional commercial TV take only 45 minutes of so to watch on SVOD, and telly addicts are able to squeeze in another hour long programme every 4 hours. As the younger generation become adults and settle down into family life, they will expect to be able to choose and watch their shows when they want to and watch them without interruption. This behaviour has already commenced, and it will rub off on older generations with time. Judging by our experience with the advent of the internet, I would say this process will take up to a decade to embrace the vast majority of the population.

Clearly, watching TV by conventional methods will decline with time, and there will come a crunch point beyond which commercial broadcast linear channels will not be able to turn a profit. This has led me to conclude that these channels will start to disappear in the next decade as more streaming services become available.

Although I have said all along that streaming/on demand services will take over, I do concede that the main players in broadcast TV may find ways of keeping their channels on air, but to do so they will need to find other income streams. For example, either individually or collectively, the main terrestrial channels may invest in their own streaming service like Netflix, supported by subscriptions. They will probably come under pressure by the Government to offer an alternative without subscription and funded by advertising for those who cannot afford to, or do not want to pay for their TV.

I have assumed that the cost of running a conventional TV channel, with all the links, scheduling, etc, would lead to these linear broadcast channels closing, but some contributors on this thread have suggested that this may not be as costly as I have assumed. If that is correct, and both streaming services and conventional channels can be run side by side without being financially prohibitive, then this may well save the broadcast channels from a complete wipeout. However, I would not be at all surprised to see a reduction in their number, if nothing else.

My detractors have thrown a number of things at me and very strong views have been expressed that although the amount of streaming will increase, it will not be at the expense of our conventional channels because it will find its own level. It has also been suggested that there are technical problems which prevent video streaming from being available to 100% of the population. That of course, is true, but it is a stretch in my opinion to believe that these problems cannot be resolved in the course of 15-20 years, particularly as those in the industry fully expect video streaming to be the name of the game in the future. So, whilst these problems are acknowledged, we can now only wait and see whether they become sticking points in the expansion of the availability of streaming services.

I have been asked specifically about what kind of choices we will have in my vision of the future, but this is more difficult to assess, because unexpected developments do happen. Looking to the future from here, it would appear that TV will be dominated by global providers like Netflix, Amazon, Comcast, etc and supplemented by national providers such as our terrestrials. Even Sky may go global - it is already making strides in that direction.

One of the more pedantic arguments that have come out of this thread is that it is not correct to describe VOD as being separate from linear because it is possible to stream live programmes. Just for the record, I do accept this completely and I have said from the start that some VOD programming will be live. However, all over the internet, linear TV is assumed to refer to our conventional broadcast TV channels, and this is certainly what I have meant by it throughout.

Some have suggested that there will be a section of the population that will resist on demand viewing and that no Government would preside over a situation in which such a system was forced upon them. That argument simply does not wash. If the provision of conventional channels becomes uneconomic, the Government certainly won't step in, except to ensure a smooth transition. This is what happened when analogue was phased out in favour of digital TV.

It has also been said that our conventional channels could refuse to sell their original programmes to the SVOD providers, denuding them of content. However, this ignores the fact that the broadcast channels are heavily reliant these days on selling their shows in this way in order to increase revenue streams. Many channels of course rely on repeat and bought in material and so would find that they had very little to sell to the big streaming players anyway.

In my view, if the BBC were to move from the licence fee to a subscription based service, this would enhance the move to SVOD. All viewers would then have some money (from the saving they make) to purchase alternative provision if they wish to do so.

There has also been a lot of talk about 'what people want' and the fact that some prefer to switch on the box and channel hop. I don't deny that of course, but if I am right and the ability to make existing conventional linear TV channels pay becomes impossible, then I'm afraid that people will just have to get used to it, as they tend to do with any major change in society and how it works.

This has been a most interesting debate and I really did not expect it to become so heated, but I guess now we can sit back and watch things change - in whatever way they are going to change - in the future.

I, for one, will be thoroughly looking forward in the short term to seeing how Virgin Media's commitment to VOD as a means of providing us with exclusive content in the future unfolds.
Lol, what a load of guff. There are so many things I could take up with on this post, but I know full well it will be pointless. I am pleased you admit linear TV will not die though, and will be available to view over the internet - even though you this disregarded the point when I challenged you with it some months ago..

---------- Post added at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:43 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
It is gratifying that Sky is at last increasing the amount of original programming, and also that after a slow start, they are now embracing on demand viewing. The benefits for them are now clear to see. Of course it matters not a jot at what time audiences access on demand!
Why is it gratifying OB? They have had on demand for many, many years, and have embraced punters using them, hence the vast catalogue they now have. Sky have, and will continue to benefit from on-demand viewers. In the year I have had Sky, a number of on demand shows have had ad's with them, so they now benefit even more from ad revenue.

I wish I had your blind faith in your belief that Netflix et al won't follow suit in a few years. I know the CEO of Netflix says otherwise at the moment, but when they hit saturation point for new members, they will need to get money from other revenue streams.
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Old 26-04-2016, 11:53   #880
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Quote:
Originally Posted by harry_hitch View Post
Lol, what a load of guff. There are so many things I could take up with on this post, but I know full well it will be pointless. I am pleased you admit linear TV will not die though, and will be available to view over the internet - even though you this disregarded the point when I challenged you with it some months ago..

---------- Post added at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:43 ----------



Why is it gratifying OB? They have had on demand for many, many years, and have embraced punters using them, hence the vast catalogue they now have. Sky have, and will continue to benefit from on-demand viewers. In the year I have had Sky, a number of on demand shows have had ad's with them, so they now benefit even more from ad revenue.

I wish I had your blind faith in your belief that Netflix et al won't follow suit in a few years. I know the CEO of Netflix says otherwise at the moment, but when they hit saturation point for new members, they will need to get money from other revenue streams.
So many things to take up, Harry? Well, this is the place to do it. The fact that I may disagree with you or you with me does not make the argument pointless.

I have never thought that linear TV in terms of on demand or streaming would die out. My reference to linear TV, as you well know, was to our traditional broadcast channels like ITV 1 and Channel 4. All over the internet, 'linear TV' is shorthand for that. But let's not get involved in such pedantic issues, we are looking at an impending transformation in the way that audiences watch TV, and this should be our focus.

I do find it gratifying that Sky have stepped up and faced the future. Contrary to what you say, Sky have only relatively recently offered on demand (cable companies gave us on demand when they went digital). However, it is good to see that Sky have now embraced this as the unavoidable future, and with startling speed, they appear to have overtaken Virgin Media. Fair play to them for this.

The issue about Netflix taking advertising on board is your fantasy, Harry, which is not only devoid of a source, but flatly contradicted by the CEO of Netflix. However, I guess you are entitled to your view. Netflix is a global player, and when they reach saturation point, they will be making billions from subscriptions alone, so I do not share your view that they will be forced to look for advertising revenue through commercials.
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Old 27-04-2016, 09:56   #881
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
So many things to take up, Harry? Well, this is the place to do it. The fact that I may disagree with you or you with me does not make the argument pointless.

I have never thought that linear TV in terms of on demand or streaming would die out. My reference to linear TV, as you well know, was to our traditional broadcast channels like ITV 1 and Channel 4. All over the internet, 'linear TV' is shorthand for that. But let's not get involved in such pedantic issues, we are looking at an impending transformation in the way that audiences watch TV, and this should be our focus.

I do find it gratifying that Sky have stepped up and faced the future. Contrary to what you say, Sky have only relatively recently offered on demand (cable companies gave us on demand when they went digital). However, it is good to see that Sky have now embraced this as the unavoidable future, and with startling speed, they appear to have overtaken Virgin Media. Fair play to them for this.

The issue about Netflix taking advertising on board is your fantasy, Harry, which is not only devoid of a source, but flatly contradicted by the CEO of Netflix. However, I guess you are entitled to your view. Netflix is a global player, and when they reach saturation point, they will be making billions from subscriptions alone, so I do not share your view that they will be forced to look for advertising revenue through commercials.
I am not going to go into detail on your previous post OB, the whole post is a massive contradiction, and climb down, from your original premise that linear TV will dead in 10 years - not that you will ever acknowledge that.

Referring briefly to your previous post though, Lets base a hypothetical future prediction from your good self on the fact that nothing in your premise changes. It's 10/20 (delete as applicable) years in the future, linear TV is dead and buried, Sky, VM, BT etc are all finished and there is nothing to be watched live (no sports on TV any more either for the sake of this argument - because, linear is finished). BBC is a subscription based company and every other content/channel owner is an exclusive VOD entity - just give a rough idea of how many VOD companies there will be, how much they will charge for an ad free world - and finally, how will often will the money be collected from the punters.

Just basic figures are fine with me, this does not need to demand much brain time.
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Old 27-04-2016, 12:51   #882
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Quote:
Originally Posted by harry_hitch View Post
I am not going to go into detail on your previous post OB, the whole post is a massive contradiction, and climb down, from your original premise that linear TV will dead in 10 years - not that you will ever acknowledge that.

Referring briefly to your previous post though, Lets base a hypothetical future prediction from your good self on the fact that nothing in your premise changes. It's 10/20 (delete as applicable) years in the future, linear TV is dead and buried, Sky, VM, BT etc are all finished and there is nothing to be watched live (no sports on TV any more either for the sake of this argument - because, linear is finished). BBC is a subscription based company and every other content/channel owner is an exclusive VOD entity - just give a rough idea of how many VOD companies there will be, how much they will charge for an ad free world - and finally, how will often will the money be collected from the punters.

Just basic figures are fine with me, this does not need to demand much brain time.
Now, I think you have become confused, Harry.

There is no contradiction. I have already explained that linear TV is shorthand for our conventional TV channels, as referred to elsewhere on the internet. However, linear programmes will obviously continue (how else would you view sport, for example?). But instead of tuning into a TV channel as now, you would access it through the streaming system that would be there in its place. I hope that is now clear!!

I have been speculating that our traditional TV channels will be pretty well gone in 20 years, but that the infrastructure should be in place by 10 years' time.

I do not expect Sky, VM and BT to be dead by then at all. Where did you pick that up from? All three are likely to offer on demand streaming services with box sets and original series, it's just the means of delivery will be different.

Whether or not BBC ever becomes subscription only will depend on the government of the day, but the Conservatives appear to be very interested in this, and you can bet your bottom dollar on this being a hot topic when the licence fee comes up for renewal in 10 years' time. If that happens, TV audiences will be able to spend that money on services other than those provided by the BBC, if they choose to do so, and this will introduce those with more modest means to the wonders of video streaming from other service providers.

The other questions you raise, such as how many providers will there be, no-one knows, do they? You don't need to have such precise answers to observe the way things are going. However, I have already sent you a link so that you can see the range of the most popular service providers currently in the US.

We don't yet know, for example, whether our existing terrestrial TV channels will pool their resources to establish one comprehensive streaming site for non Sky UK programmes or whether some/all of them go their separate ways (although personally I suspect there will be one for the BBC, one for Sky and another one for the rest).
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Old 27-04-2016, 13:19   #883
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

OB, you have massively changed your position, whilst arguing that you haven't. Some of the things you have just presented as "obvious", you in fact did not accept until they were explained to you, patiently, often repeatedly, over the past year and more that this thread has been running.

I have quoted back to you, more than once, the post in which you predicted the demise of linear TV channels in 10 years (10 years from early 2015, that is, so about 8 years and 9 months now).

That you are now trying to draw a distinction between a linear channel and linear programming is laughable, and simply proves how many semantic contortions you are willing to make in order to avoid the simple truth: you were proved comprehensively wrong, within days of this thread opening, and everything that has followed has been a huge exercise in denial and repositioning on your part.
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Old 27-04-2016, 14:02   #884
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
All three are likely to offer on demand streaming services with box sets and original series
And what about all the really popular programmes? You know, stuff like Britain's Got Talent, Eastenders and Antiques Roadshow.
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Old 27-04-2016, 14:25   #885
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Re: The future for linear TV channels

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Originally Posted by spiderplant View Post
And what about all the really popular programmes? You know, stuff like Britain's Got Talent, Eastenders and Antiques Roadshow.
Or big national events such as royal weddings, the Queen's anniversary, remembrance Sunday, the annual festival of remembrance, Last Night of the Proms.

Are people going to all gather around an iPad Mini to share these?

The minute they're being watched on a TV via an app - and will every TV maker offer all these VOD apps?! - and given they're live events we're back to the very linear broadcasting which the OP first claimed would be a thing of the past.
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