Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Well, I don't think 2,500 is sufficient when you factor in the fact that elections are won by constituencies. You need to get a bigger sample in all like constituencies to get the accuracy required. It was the failure to do this adequately at the last election that led to the result being such a surprise.
|
Yeah you have to distinguish between the popular vote and how it translates to seats. Incidentally YouGov tried to do this and got it right. They have a hung parliament with Labour winning Canterbury. But the latter is less exact that the raw numbers where pollsters continue to do ok.