Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
The trouble is Andrew, that it's all guesswork and projections based on 'what if' scenarios. I doubt anyone is 'disrespecting' the work they do, but they've been wrong a few times in the past, which doesn't help the 'man in the streets' perception of their value.
It's like using statistics to prove something, looks good on paper but doesn't reflect real life. . . .
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I think guesswork is a little strong. There are certainly projections based on 'what if' scenarios but no matter how rigorous your model, economics is a somewhat chaotic system, hence the error bars that are shown in the studies that never reach the headline figures. This is the same as projections of climate change and weather.
What is important however, is the general trend of the studies. All studies except the Economists for Brexits study predict a lower performance for the UK compared to our local peers. There is no solid figure agreed between the studies on the absolute effect of Brexit as each model is different. However, if they all point in the same direction, it's worth paying some kind of attention to the general trend. Again, this is much like climate change where 90 odd percent of studies agree that there is a predicted upturn in global temperatures but no solid agreement in how much.
A second point to note is that government does pay attention to these studies and drives policy based on these predictions. If these studies are wrong or based on guesswork, should we question to competence of the government?