Re: Brexit discussion
 

Lies and deceit are not the monopoly of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove although they are maybe more blatant than their predecessors. I rate Thatcher as a PM but cover-ups over the miners and Hillsborough tarnish her reputation for honesty.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

If this is indicative of the impact study DeExEU have done into 50+ sectors of the UK economy it's not hard to see why HMG don't want to release it.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/09/13.jpg

Very, very few people now think that leaving the EU is a good thing fiscally for the country in the short or medium term, even moving to EEA/EFTA terms, even worse for WTO, obviously long term predictions are very fluid, and the economy is a massive influence on elections. A government pursuing policies that it, itself, thinks will weaken the economy is not a big vote winner.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

If I was Theresa May, I would ban that report as it would give a very powerful argument to remain in the EU which in turn would give a very powerful argument not to vote Conservative at the next election.

Whilst I'm resigned to leaving the EU with its consequences of inflation, higher unemployment, less money to spend on areas like the Police, armed forces and NHS, I'm not sure that the rest of the country is.


Great excerpt on how the UKGovernment is not preparing for a no-deal scenario which from a negotiating viewpoint it makes sense to do.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41271028

Re: Brexit discussion
 

How do you KNOW this is going to happen?

By KNOW I mean concrete knowledge not one of the many potentials.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

He doesn't, he's just bought into project fear despit it having been debunked so far.

Meanwhile in the real world:

Source

Re: Brexit discussion
 

I am sure we can all pick on one data point and claim an entire raft of things have been debunked.

It's fair to say the concerns were overblown, as were the upsides presented by the leave campaigns. The official government prediction is that Brexit will not free up any money for the treasury, in fiscal year 2019/20 even if we contribute nothing to the EU budget the treasury will be out of pocket.

Likewise the talk of mass unemployment hasn't happened.

What has happened seems to be a much less extreme version of the remain campaign's forecast so far.

Sterling is running on expectation of an interest rate rise right now. Besides, we have all been told it was massively over-valued and needed the devaluation to benefit our exporters?

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Of course it's going to happen outside the EU and everything inside will be just perfect - no inflation, no unemployment, no cuts to services, no right wing extremism, no migration crisis, no bank bailouts... :rolleyes:

;)

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Putting the EU Haters to one side for the moment, I am guessing that most of the Leave voters wanted to leave the EU for reasons they would regard as in the best interests of the country as a whole.

Of course there are zealots who would leave at any cost and would be content to suffer personal financial loss if that is what is required ... the "Brexit Martyrs" that Vince Cable alluded to. The vast majority would differ from this position I suspect and would not be happy to see their standard of living & personal prosperity drop in the medium/long term post Brexit.

It is this likelihood, made more likely by the current bungling of the Article 50 process, that will, I feel, lead to a very bizarre electoral landscape in a couple of years time.

The Leavers that were promised a rosy EU-free future may well turn to Labour if they see their Brexit "ruined" by the Tories. Yes, they will be attempts to blame "Traitors", "Remoaners", etc. but most will see through this. Brexit could directly lead to a Corbyn government .. slightly ironic, right?

The Leave promise was put to the electorate with no planning, no time and no skill. So the chances of it playing out as hoped look smaller as the days go by. If time, skill and planning was put into Brexit before the vote, the outcome could and would have been very different.

"It will be fine, stop moaning" I hear .. Well, Faith & Belief will only take you so far. At some point you will have to face reality .. and the reality does not look too good at the moment.

So when there are reasoned arguments and articles illustrating why Brexit will be a net-negative in terms of national & personal prosperity, please don't just reply with platitudes, post reasoned arguments supported by evidence.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

:tu:

---------- Post added at 14:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:58 ----------

... and with regard to Boris's supposedly heinous crime according to Sir Jeremy Heywood:

https://order-order.com/2017/09/20/n...boris-blunder/

Odd how there's been little in the main stream media about what BJ actually wrote as opposed to how a senior civil servant chose to represent it eh? I wonder why...

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Curious Johnson mentioned any numbers to be honest.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/09/13.jpg

---------- Post added at 15:40 ---------- Previous post was at 15:35 ----------

It was David Norgrove who took Johnson to task. He does not have statutory powers to comment on what the opposition say and do, his job is to regulate the government. Source: a barrister who doesn't appear to have an axe to grind.

https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/09/18.jpg
https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/09/19.jpg
https://www.cableforum.co.uk/images/...2017/09/20.jpg

Official statistics.

Regardless of whether you buy the OBR's forecasts or not, and given they are the Government's official figures Johnson should, the use of the gross figure whether referring to new spending or to 'taking back control' is a misuse of statistics. The Treasury never lose control of the abatement.

---------- Post added at 15:47 ---------- Previous post was at 15:40 ----------

Dominic Cummings is scathing of the manner in which the Conservatives have implemented Brexit so far.

He is right, too. They could scarcely have handled it much worse if they tried.

My biggest fear in all this was that they would make a total mess of it. Not against it in principle, though I would far, far prefer we'd rejoin EFTA, but they are incompetently bumbling through for the international audience while spending their time on demagoguery at home.

We should bin Article 50 right now, and set about leaving the EU via a mutual treaty. No time limit pressures, plenty of time to properly and soberly analyse our options, and to put the systems in place to ensure that we can smoothly transition and in turn prosper on exit day.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

He actually said: "Once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350m per week.

“It would be a fine thing, as many of us have pointed out, if a lot of that money went on the NHS, provided we use that cash injection to modernise and make the most of new technology."

You'll notice that he didn't say that we would give the NHS £350 million a week.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Can't the government just increase NHS funding by £350 million a week and end this.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

Doesn't matter. We wouldn't be taking back control of 'roughly' £350m per week unless a 30% margin of error is considered acceptable. I'm quite aware of Boris's heavy use of equivocation.

One of the most interesting things about this whole affair for me is how many people are cheering the government's strategy on even while one of the people most directly involved in making it happen is saying the manner in which it's being done is a disaster. It's unforced error after unforced error and it's really not good for the UK. They need to get their act together immediately.

---------- Post added at 16:38 ---------- Previous post was at 16:36 ----------

They will be, it's needed to do something even close to keeping pace with the population's demand for healthcare.

It just probably won't, for a while at least, come from any savings made due to leaving the EU.

Re: Brexit discussion
 

If only you'd stop remoaning...

Re: Brexit discussion
 

The obstacle in doing what you mention is the admission of culpability. No politician in power is going to admit to the passengers that the name of the ship they are on is called the Titanic :)

Even if they did admit the course we are on is the wrong one, who, in the current government, has the political foresight and instinct to oust May and set us on a more synergistic EU exit ..

BTW, for some reason, the aforementioned Vote Leave Campaign Chief is now saying some very strange things:

Vote Leave Campaign Chief Dominic Cummings Admits Leaving The EU Could ‘Be An Error’